Monday, February 4, 2008

Super Tuesday Preview: By The Numbers

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 350

The mainstream print and electronic outlets have been running statements for the last 10 days or so to the effect of "Super Tuesday! 24 states hold Democratic and Republican primaries!" The state-by-state picture for tomorrow's voting is a bit more complex than that, so here are some handy facts to help clarify things.

Tomorrow, Democrats hold nominating contests (either primaries or caucuses) in 23 states; there's also one U.S. Territory (American Samoa) which will hold a Democratic caucus. On the GOP side, 21 states are holding nominating contests (either primaries or caucuses), and one other (West Virginia) will hold a state nominating convention.

For Democrats, 1,681 pledged delegates are at stake, roughly 83% of the total 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. For Republicans, there are 1,023 pledged delegates up for grabs out of a total of 1,191, or nearly 86% of the total needed for the GOP nomination. It isn't being called Super Tuesday for nothing.

(Note: total available delegates are 3,618 for Democrats and 2,159 for Republicans. Sanctioned delegates from Florida and Michigan not included.)

As of this writing, delegate totals for the remaining active candidates stand as follows:

Hillary Clinton: 261
Barack Obama: 190

Mike Huckabee: 40
John McCain: 93
Mitt Romney: 77

Details of state nominating contests are as follows. And as tempting as I admit it is, no, there will not be a quiz at the end of this post.

Democrats: Primary, 52 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 45 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Caucus, 13 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 26 delegates (proportionally allocated)

American Samoa
Democrats: Caucus, 3 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Democrats: Primary, 35 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 31 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Democrats: Primary, 56 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 53 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Primary, 370 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 170 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Caucus, 55 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 43 delegates (presidential preference non-binding; delegate allocations will be made at county assemblies and district conventions)

Democrats: Primary, 48 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 27 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Primary, 15 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 18 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Primary, 87 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 72 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Caucus, 18 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP holds its primary on May 27, 32 delegates. 26 delegates are proportionally allocated based on primary returns; the remaining 6 delegates are chosen at the state convention June 12-14)

Democrats: Primary, 153 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 57 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Kansas Democratic caucus
Democrats: Caucus, 32 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP holds its caucus on February 9, 36 delegates. Winner takes all.)

Democrats: Primary, 93 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 40 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Democrats: Caucus, 72 delegates (47 awarded proportionally, 23 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)
Republicans: Caucus, 38 delegates (presidential preference non-binding; delegate allocations will be made at county assemblies and district conventions)

Democrats: Primary, 72 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 58 delegates (winner takes all)

Republicans: Caucus, 25 delegates (winner takes all)
(Democratic primary will be on June 3, 16 delegates. 10 delegates awarded proportionally, 6 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)

New Jersey
Democrats: Primary, 107 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 52 delegates (winner takes all)

New Mexico
Democrats: Caucus, 26 delegates (proportionally allocated)
(GOP primary will be June 3, 29 delegates proportionally allocated)

New York
Democrats: Primary, 232 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 101 delegates (winner takes all)

North Dakota
Democrats: Caucus, 13 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Caucus, 23 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Democrats: Primary, 38 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 38 delegates (winner takes all)

Democrats: Primary, 68 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 52 delegates (proportionally allocated)

Democrats: Primary, 23 delegates (proportionally allocated)
Republicans: Primary, 36 delegates (winner takes all)

West Virginia
Republicans: Nominating Convention, 18 delegates
(Democrats hold their primary May 13, 28 delegates. 18 delegates awarded proportionally, 10 awarded based on winner of state wide returns)

(sources: National Association of Secretaries of State and Delegate totals from the Washington Post.)

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