Monday, February 11, 2008

Sweeps Week for Obama?

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 343

If polling data proves accurate, following this past weekend's blow-out victories over Hillary Clinton, today's voting in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia could give Barack Obama a sweep of seven consecutive contests in the space of four days.

Recent polls in today's contests certainly look promising for Obama. ARG has Obama up by 18 points in both Maryland and Virginia, while Survey USA has Obama up by 23 points in Maryland and 22 points in Virginia.

This follows, of course, last weekend's contests, where Obama beat Clinton by 22% in Louisiana, 20% in Maine, 35% in Nebraska and 36% in Washington, for an average 28 point margin of victory. These wins put Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie for pledged delegates. Definitive numbers are elusive, but estimates from the Associated Press give Clinton 1,095 to Obama's 1,070, while the New York Times puts Clinton at 1,043 to 921 over Obama and RealClear Politics gives Obama a 1,004 to 925 advantage over Clinton.

The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia contests will award 237 delegates on a proportional basis, which, assuming polling data holds up, will break something like 132-105 in favor of Obama, providing the latter with a net gain of 27.

So, despite recent events indicating a cruising Obama and a faltering Clinton, a look at the numbers suggests a protracted contest in store for Democrats.

And that's as far as I'm going to go while the polls are open around the Potomac. I'll be back with some additional thoughts once the votes are counted.

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