Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 380

Thursday's caucus already seems as though it took place a year ago. And while my preferred candidate Joe Biden is now out of the race, the race continues, as does this page.

Lots of emotions about Thursday's outcome, and interested readers can click over to Pajamas Media, where I've jotted down some thoughts about it all; feel free to leave comments either here or there. You can also listen in on an interview I did on New Year's Day with XM Satellite Radio's Channel #130, POTUS '08 (my part starts about 16 minutes into the show). Later this weekend, I'll also be putting up a quick take on the outcome and what I think it means, so stay tuned.

In the meantime, there's tonight's debate in New Hampshire. Unlike Iowa's leisurely year at the center of the political universe, the Granite State gets the entire campaign blasted at it in warp speed over the course of less than a week. Have fun, guys!

I'll be back later tonight with some thoughts on the debate.

The Only Voice That Matters

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 382

Tonight is caucus night in Iowa. After a full year of campaigning, speeches, debates, rallies, endorsements, house parties, phone banking, canvassing, ad buys, robocalling, polls and punditry upon punditry upon punditry, tonight the voters of Iowa finally have their say.

For a full year in advance of your voting tonight, people have been telling you what this campaign is about and who the frontrunners are. But tonight, forget Matthews, and Russert, and Stephanopoulos, and Yepsen. Forget ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC. Tonight, they don't matter. Tonight, they listen to you. As an Iowa voter, here is what I say to the pundits, and to my neighbors and fellow caucus-goers across the state tonight.

Tonight I stand with Joe Biden. All of our candidates on the Democratic side are good candidates, committed to moving our country forward once again after the fear and drift of the Bush-Cheney years. Tonight I stand with Joe Biden because after meeting all the candidates, examining their records and proposals, and weighing who is most likely to prevail against the Republican nominee in the fall, I have come to believe that Joe Biden is not just one good candidate among several, but the best candidate, and by a wide margin.

Name recognition is not experience. Money is not leadership. Celebrity is not vision. Where other candidates have voiced a commitment to ending the war in Iraq, Joe Biden has crafted a plan, and then worked with his colleagues on both sides of the aisle in the Senate to see it pass overwhelmingly. Time and again throughout the campaign, Joe Biden has been proven right on issues ranging from Iraq and Pakistan abroad to civil liberties and the rule of law here at home. And the other candidates have recognized this, saying time and again "Joe is right," and "I agree with Joe."

And, in talking with other voters across Iowa, I know many of them agree with Joe, as well. Again and again I've heard, "I really like Joe Biden, but I'm going to caucus for someone else because they have a better chance at winning Iowa." Although I strongly disagree about Biden's chances in Iowa, I understand why people have said this. It isn't easy to buck the influence of millions of dollars of advertising and countless polls and pundits. To Iowa voters who feel they would prefer to vote for Joe Biden tonight, if only they thought he could win, I say this.

Your heart is with Joe Biden, but your vote is with another candidate whom everyone says will do well in the caucuses. If that is true, if other candidates are somehow destined to do well regardless, then what do they need you for? If that is true, then go with your gut. Follow your heart. Stand with Joe Biden tonight. Because tonight no one can tell you what to do. Tonight all the pollsters and pundits await in silence for the sound of your voice. Tonight they listen to you. Listen to your heart; that is the only voice that matters tonight. Tonight, stand with Joe Biden.

Updated: Caucus Pledge Targets Out-of-State Campaign Volunteers, Staff

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 438

[original post updated with response from the Richardson campaign]

Chris Dodd's campaign, alarmed by the reported influx of Clinton supporters from outside Iowa brought in to attend Hillary rallies and activities in advance of Saturday's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, today sent a pledge to the other Democratic campaigns asking them to commit that "none of their staff or volunteers who have come from out-of-state to work in Iowa will attempt to caucus or be counted as a caucus-goer on January 3rd."

The pledge, while sent by Dodd's Iowa campaign director Julie Andreeff Jensen to her opposite numbers in the Biden, Clinton, Edwards, Obama and Richardson campaigns, is clearly aimed at Clinton. Here's the press release and accompanying pledge:

"On the eve of the Jefferson Jackson Dinner weekend, Presidential candidate Chris Dodd’s Iowa State Director Julie Andreeff Jensen today sent a letter to the State Directors of the other Democratic campaigns in Iowa, calling for each to sign a pledge stating that none of their staff or volunteers who have come from out-of-state to work in Iowa will attempt to caucus or be counted as a caucus-goer on January 3rd.



Reports that some campaigns will have thousands of people flooding into Iowa to fill out crowds at the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner highlights the potential for risk to the integrity of the caucus process.



“I’m sure we can all agree that the Iowa caucuses are unique and belong to the people of Iowa. As staff, we are fortunate to be a part of the process but should not interfere with the process itself,” said Andreeff Jensen in the letter. “Therefore, I ask that each of you sign this pledge in good faith on behalf of your campaign to preserve the integrity of the Iowa caucus process and to ensure that caucus night truly reflects the decisions made by Iowans and not people from out-of-state.”



All of the presidential campaigns in 2004 signed a similar pledge. The full text of Andreeff Jensen’s letter and the pledge are copied below.

-30-


November 8, 2007

Dear Colleague –

I am writing to you today on behalf of the Chris Dodd for President Campaign. It has come to my attention that thousands of out-of-state volunteers are coming into Iowa this weekend for the Jefferson Jackson Dinner. This influx of out-of-state volunteers has raised concerns that I am sure we all share leading up to caucus day.

As many of you may remember from the caucuses in 2004, all of the presidential campaigns agreed to sign a pledge to ensure a fair caucus process by prohibiting any staff or out-of-state volunteers from participating in the caucuses.

Therefore, I am making a commitment to you all that Chris Dodd’s campaign pledges that no campaign staff or out-of-state volunteers will caucus or be counted as a caucus goer on January 3rd and I ask that you sign this pledge and do the same.

I’m sure we can all agree that the Iowa caucuses are unique and belong to the people of Iowa. As staff, we are fortunate to be a part of the process but should not interfere with the process itself. Therefore, I ask that each of you sign this pledge in good faith on behalf of your campaign to preserve the integrity of the Iowa caucus process and to ensure that caucus night truly reflects the decisions made by Iowans and not people from out-of-state.

Thank you for your consideration and please feel free to contact me with any questions.

Sincerely,
Julie Andreeff Jensen
State Director
Chris Dodd for President





To ensure that caucus night truly reflects the decisions made by Iowans and not people from out-of-state;

WE THE UNDERSIGNED CAMPAIGNS, to ensure a fair caucus process AND MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY OF IOWA’S FIRST IN THE NATION CAUCUS, pledge that no campaign staff or out-of-state volunteers will be allowed to caucus or be counted as a caucus-goer on January 3rd.


Julie Andreeff Jensen

Paul Tewes, Obama Campaign

Teresa Vilmain, Clinton Campaign

Danny O’Brien, Biden Campaign

Jennifer O’Malley, Dillon Edwards Campaign

Rob Becker, Richardson Campaign"

UPDATE
Shortly after the Dodd campaign sent out its press release quoted above, the Bill Richardson campaign fired back:

RichardsonIowaCaucus Director Blasts Dodd Proposal to Disenfranchise Iowans from Caucus

DES MOINES, IA--- Shari Fitzgerald, Presidential Candidate Bill Richardson’s Iowa Caucus Director, today issued the following statement:

“I have participated in every Presidential caucus since 1972 and refuse to be bound not to caucus for the candidate of my choice by any candidate or their campaign—ever. I am an Iowan and it is not just my right, but my duty as a citizen to participate in my caucus. It is unfair to try to disenfranchise any Iowan from this critical process.”

###

I get the Richardson campaign's point: the actual text of the pledge makes no distinction among campaign staff who are Iowa residents and those who came to the state expressly to work on the campaign. This appears at variance with the statement from Dodd's state director announcing the pledge:

statement:

"sign a pledge stating that none of their staff or volunteers who have come from out-of-state to work in Iowa will attempt to caucus or be counted as a caucus-goer on January 3rd." (emphasis added)

pledge:

"pledge that no campaign staff or out-of-state volunteers will be allowed to caucus or be counted as a caucus-goer on January 3rd." (emphasis added)

The difference is subtle, amounting almost to hair-splitting. But politics being what it is, the moreso in the climactic phase of this year's crucial race here in Iowa, it isn't surprising that opponents seeing such seemingly small distinctions are inclined to smell a rat; this is true even when, as I believe to be the case here, there really isn't one.

Deep Background

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 736

What is This?
This is a blog presenting my experiences in participating in the 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus process. We’ll start on January 14, 2007, and follow the long and twisting road through to the caucuses on January 14, 2008.

And Who Might You Be?
A temporary transplant to the Midwest. I came here in February 2005 fresh from Philadelphia, Seattle before that, L.A. before that. Thus, for me, retail politics has always been the province of others. Until now.

I have no journalistic pretensions, and make no attempt at producing a political news site. Most likely, in fact, if it is actually news, you’ll read about it here last of any site on the internet. And while I will make very free with my personal political opinions, I expect this will occur within the context of framing my reaction to one or another event or candidate. I don’t intend to try to necessarily persuade readers that I am right, but do hope to always set out a clear (and hopefully compelling) statement of my views.

So, here’s hoping we’ll both find this to be an interesting tale to tell, and to read. Remember to subscribe to get automatic notification when new entries are posted, and feel free to post your own comments any time you’d like. This could be fun!