And So It Begins

Incredibly, I have now hit the wall on Inauguration coverage on TV and the internet, so I can only imagine how normal people must feel about it by now. I really don't think I can watch another dance at another Ball tonight, so it is clearly time to call it a day.

But what a wonderful day to have witnessed. I have struggled to devise some fitting words to sum up the meaning and impact of this day, but haven't come up with anything even remotely near the mark. But the following comes closer than anything I have seen to meeting that purpose, and this is what I want to say:

[He] is here not only to sweeten the air...but to clear the infected atmosphere of American history itself, tainted with official sins and inherited guilt. He would cleanse the Constitution...[h]e altered the document from within, by appeal from its letter to its spirit, subtly changing the recalcitrant stuff of that legal compromise, bringing it to its own indictment. By implicitly doing this, he performed one of the most daring acts of open-air sleight-of-hand ever witnessed by the unsuspecting. Every one in that vast throng...departed with a new thing in [their] ideological luggage, that new Constitution [he] had substituted for the one they had brought there with them. They walked off...under a changed sky, into a different America.

~ Garry Wills, Lincoln at Gettysburg

Today was a wonderful day. There will, alas, be days to come that are terrible, and some that will be unbearable. The world is not perfected by virtue of this day. But it is different. It is better. And under this changed sky, in this different America, we will draw strength from our common purpose. And we will prevail.

Obama's First Official Act

After escorting the Bushes from the Capitol, Barack Obama has completed his first official act, signing a Presidential Proclamation of National Renewal. And the quote from President Obama as he held the pen in his left hand and signed the document:

"I'm a lefty. Get used to it."

Spoken with a wry smile. YES!

The Inaugural Address

After Chief Justice Roberts blundered his way through administering the Oath of Office, President Obama rises to speak.

Here's the part about challenge I expected at the outset: war, economic crisis, healthcare, failing schools, dependence on foreign energy, climate change.

And then comes hope over fear. "Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of rebuilding America." "The stale political arguments of the past no longer apply." "As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals."

And too many other priceless lines to transcribe here. A great speech, and a good beginning to the Obama administration. This president is up to the challenge. And so are we.

Yes, we can.

President Barack Obama

(The countdown is officially retired!)

Barack Obama has just been sworn in as the 44th President of the United States. From head to toe, I am a solid mass of goose bumps.

Couchblogging the Inauguration

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 0

It is (finally) Inauguration Day! I'm not in D.C. this morning (and don't you think I didn't try!), so I'll be blogging about the day from my couch. And if you're wondering what's the point about blogging about an event that anybody can see on a television screen, all I can say is that puts me about even with 90% of the people on and around the Mall this morning. Except that I'm sitting by a cozy fire with a nice cup of tea.

At the moment, the Obamas and the Bidens are in the White House having coffee with the Bushes. The Mall is already full to capacity, many Metro stations around the Mall and Capitol Hill are closed due to overcrowding, and the Inaugural Committee has sent the following text message:

Inauguration Update: If you are still in transit to the Mall, we suggest you head west of 14th Street.

14th Street would put you a long, long way from the West Front of the Capitol, by the way.

ἀποθεόω (Apotheosis)

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 49

OK, is it just me, or are expectations for Barack Obama's administration veering just a tad into unrealistic territory?





Up next: Obama as Joan of Arc and Albert Einstein.

Butterflies

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 77

Election Day is tomorrow. I can hardly believe it. After months and months of a campaign by turns exhilarating, exasperating, inspiring, and finally, exhausting, tomorrow the votes will be cast and the only poll that matters will tell us who will be our next president.

In the predictions department, I'm forecasting an Obama victory in the range of anywhere from 299 electoral votes on the low side to a probable maximum of 360. It is certainly possible for the total to come out even higher, but I would be stunned at a landslide of that magnitude. I suspect I would not be the only one.

I do not expect the balloting tomorrow to mirror the close-run votes of 2000 and 2004. I believe the results will be decisive to the extent that the all-too-predictable voting irregularities in Ohio and Florida will not keep us from knowing the result until later in the week. We will wake up Wednesday morning knowing the winners and losers.

The key battleground states in the presidential race remain Florida, Missouri and Ohio. I know the MSM maintains that Pennsylvania is not yet in the bag for Obama, but they're wrong; Pennsylvania will be called early in the evening, and when it is you can uncork the champaign for Barack.

As to the House and Senate, I'm looking for a Democratic gain of around 30 seats in the House and perhaps 8 in the Senate. That will leave Democrats shy of the vaunted 60 seat "super majority" in the Senate that would make life a lot easier for President Obama, but, looking at the data, it is hard to see how we get more than 58 Democratic senators. We'll just have to dig in and make up the difference in the 2010 midterms.

I also believe that election night is ever so much more fun if one has a scorecard, so I've picked CQ Politics' slate of bellweather races from the list of innumerable alternatives out there:

House races

Conn. 4th: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) vs. Jim Himes (D) — No Clear Favorite
Indiana 3rd: Rep. Mark Souder (R) vs. Michael Montagano (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 1st: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Steve Driehaus (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 2nd: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Vic Wulsin (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 15th: Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 16th: Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) — Leans Democratic
Wyo. At Large: Cynthia Lummis (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D) — No Clear Favorite


Senate races

Georgia: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) — Leans Republican
Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D) — Leans Republican
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Rep. Tom Allen (D) — Leans Republican
Oregon: Sen. Gordon H. Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) — No Clear Favorite

Outcomes in these races will give us a pretty solid idea of whether the oft-anticipated electoral Perfect Storm of 2008 will materialize.

I'll be spending tomorrow morning working a double shift as a poll watcher here in Des Moines, then drumming my fingers the rest of the afternoon waiting for the first polls to close. Butterflies. I want this one like Christmas morning.

Finally, if you haven't taken advantage of early voting, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4!

(can you hear me now?)

Joe Says Hi

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 148

From the inbox, attached to a note with the subject "Hello" and the sender line "Joe Biden":

Yes.

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 150

Obama/Biden 2008.

I've been hoping I'd be able to type those words ever since it became clear that Barack Obama would be the Democratic nominee for president. Other words come to mind, as well:

...experience...leadership...political courage...character and integrity, and the strength of ideas...Joe Biden possesses all of these attributes, and then some. Crucially, Joe Biden also has the ability not just to articulate his proposals, but to take the fight to the Republicans and win. Need convincing? Go ask Rudy's campaign how they feel about Biden's renowned "a noun, a verb and 9/11" barb.

The 2008 presidential contest comes at a time of testing for our country, when our values, our character and our leadership are being challenged around the globe. This is a time not for big names, but for big ideas; not for poll-tested slogans, but for time-proven leadership; not for image, but for vision. Above all, this is a time for American renewal, to restore justice and humanity to the use of our power abroad, reason and civility to the conduct of our politics at home, and, most of all, peace and hope to a world that cannot achieve it without a rebirth of American leadership. This is a time for American greatness. This is the time for Joe Biden.

I was quite pleased with those words when I first published them. And I don't half mind the look of them today.

Another "Momentary" Gaffe by McCain

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 182

Barack Obama continues his overseas trip today, while John McCain continues the unending gaffe-fest that is his campaign for president. This paragraph from a story in the NY Times sums things up nicely:

[T]he images of the two presidential candidates offered a sharp contrast. In an interview on “Good Morning America” on ABC, Mr. McCain talked about securing the “Iraq-Pakistan border,” a momentary misstatement of geography. (American forces are pursuing terrorists along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; Iraq does not border Pakistan.) His aides staged an event where he was seen riding in a golf cart in Maine with the first President George Bush, while Mr. Obama flew over Iraq in a helicopter with Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American military commander.

I find it striking that the Times goes so far out of its way to soften the impact of McCain's blunder on the “Iraq-Pakistan border” by referring to it as "a momentary misstatement of geography." The only reason this, or any of the other instances in the long list of McCain's errors in understanding the world he seeks to lead, could be considered "momentary" is that once again some one who knows better (an astoundingly long list which, in this case, would include any seventh grade student with a geography textbook) pointed out to McCain that Iraq and Pakistan do not share a border. McCain's vague and uncertain grasp of the facts of foreign policy - not the nuances, but the straightforward, schoolbook facts - is ongoing, and anything but momentary.

Not that any of this should be allowed to interrupt McCain's golf game, of course. Now watch this drive.

Not The Way It Was Supposed To Play Out

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 208

Remember the Republicans grand strategy to win back the House and Senate this year? The one that involved tying Democratic candidates nation-wide to a liberal, scary and unelectable Barack Obama? The strategy that bombed in seismic GOP losses in special elections in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi earlier this year?

Well, in case there's anyone who didn't already know this, that strategy is dead. How dead? So dead that Gordon Smith, Republican U.S. Senator from Oregon, is running an ad that touts, among his other qualities, that he has worked closely with and been praised by none other than Barack Obama.

See for yourself:



Taking the audacity of hope to whole new levels...

Obama Launches First General Election Ad

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 213

Barack Obama has gone on the air nationwide today with a 30 second spot titled, "Country I Love." The ad features Obama speaking directly into the camera over a soft folk guitar soundtrack, and begins airing today in 18 states: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Here's the script:

I'm Barack Obama.

America is a country of strong families and strong values. My life's been blessed by both.

I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents. We didn't have much money, but they taught me values straight from the Kansas heartland where they grew up. Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses. Treating your neighbor as you'd like to be treated. It's what guided me as I worked my way up - taking jobs and loans to make it through college.

It's what led me to pass up Wall Street jobs and go to Chicago instead, helping neighborhoods devastated when steel plants closed.

That's why I passed laws moving people from welfare to work, cut taxes for working families and extended health care for wounded troops who'd been neglected.

I approved this message because I'll never forget those values, and if I have the honor of taking the oath of office as President, it will be with a deep and abiding faith in the country I love.

And here's the video:

Obama Campaign Launches Web Site to "Fight The Smears"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 221

They've passed into campaign lore by now: unsubstantiated and untrue rumors that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim, that he does not pledge allegiance to the American flag, and many more, circulated via email blasts and hammered endlessly on right-wing talk radio.

This week, the Obama campaign is launching a web site to specifically address these attacks. The site, titled "Fight the Smears," supplements the "Fact Check" page on the campaign's main website, and lists the rumors and the campaign's response in concise, even spare terms, bullet-point fashion.

I think this is something the Obama campaign simply has to do in the face of the rumor- and fear-mongering attacks launched against the candidate over the last year or so. But I am also convinced that these attacks would be much less potent, and more effectively countered, if Obama were to start an immediate, focused effort to introduce himself in detail to the electorate. As natural as it is to want to pull back a little from the relentless grind of the past 18 months of campaigning, Barack Obama and his campaign need to get out in front of the public with a specific campaign to tell voters, in depth, about the candidate's life story and values. Books, websites and the like will only go so far with this; the overall effort needs to be more focused and aggressive.

As of this moment, and in spite of months of rumor attacks, Barack Obama still retains the ability to define himself to the electorate at large. Every week that goes by without a concerted plan to replace rumors from anonymous emailers and right-wing shills with a factual, full-dimensional portrait of Obama as a flesh-and-blood human being, and not just a political and media icon, means ceding that advantage by continuing to leave the field open for these attacks to resonate. The rumor attacks launched against Obama will lose all effectiveness when suspicion bred of novelty gives way to familiarity with Obama as an individual.

The political environment abhors a vacuum. In order to effectively combat rumors and attacks about Barack Obama, he and his campaign need to dislodge lies with truth. That effort must begin now, in-depth, and, to the greatest extent possible, be conducted by Barack Obama himself, one interview, one living room TV, one voter at a time.

Pros and Cons of HRC 4 VP

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

Charles Babington over at AP has drawn up a list of pros and cons Barack Obama might consider when mulling over whether to name Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Babbington's take isn't meant to be heavyweight analysis, but he does make a couple of good points. My favorites, quoting from the article:

Pro: She brings a proven team of fundraisers, planners and volunteers to the ticket.

Con: Why not get two for the price of one? To safeguard her husband's legacy and her own ambition, Hillary Clinton surely must campaign vigorously and wholeheartedly for you, whether she's on the ticket or not. Let her do so while you pick a running mate who brings other strengths.

Pro: She might put Arkansas in play. Bush won the state easily in 2004, but maybe the state's former first lady, whose husband's presidential library is in Little Rock, can put it in your column.

Con: She has dubious taste in music. Throughout Pennsylvania she played the theme from "Rocky," a movie about a white protagonist who beats up a black man before losing to him. And she made a Celine Dion tune her official campaign song. Enough said.

Its His Party Now, Part 1: Obama Bans Lobbiest Money at the DNC

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

In a sign that the newly-minted Democratic nominee is moving fast to consolidate control over the party, an Obama spokesman announced today that the DNC will no longer accept campaign cash from PACs or federal lobbyists.

This is an important step for Obama to take, not only because it brings the national party in line with his long-standing campaign position on donations from lobbyists and PACS, but also because it indicates that Obama intends to move quickly to assert control over the party now that he is the nominee-in-waiting. Banning lobbyist money from the DNC also raises the ante against John McCain, who has well-known lobbyists such as Charlie Black running his campaign; all that remains is for Obama to challenge John McCain to ban lobbyist money from the RNC, which, come to think of it, wouldn't be a bad opening salvo for the general election campaign.

Triple Witching Weekend

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 231

The weekend just past will likely go down as a significant two days in this cycle's Democratic presidential nominating process, with three events combining to put their stamp on the color and shape of things as we near the end of the race.

First and foremost, there was the DNC Rules Committee meeting on Saturday. I don't have a verbatim transcript of the proceedings, but here is the gist, based on hand-written notes I made of key portions of the committee's televised deliberations:
"Shut up!"
"No, you shut up!"
"Make me!"
"Maybe I will! Gosh!"

Such elevated discourse aside, the substantive outcome of the meeting was that the delegate total needed to nominate has risen from 2026 to 2118, based on the seating arrangements for the Michigan and Florida delegations agreed to by the committee. The result was that Barack Obama's number of remaining delegates needed to nominate increased to 66, while Hillary Clinton's margin narrowed tantalizingly from "stupendously out of reach" to "outlandishly remote."

Incidentally, the committee vote on Michigan, by far the more contentious issue on the table, was 19-8; thirteen members of the committee had already publicly pledged support for Hillary Clinton, and, as the vote shows, they failed to keep their own block in line to vote for their proposal to deny any delegates to Barack Obama. Further proof, if any is needed, that, bravado aside, the fact that the nomination has slipped through Clinton's fingers is starting to register even on some of her most committed (and influential) supporters.

A maxim attributed to Otto von Bismarck maintains that there are two things you never want to allow people to see being made: laws and sausages. I think the Rules Committee meeting makes a powerful case for adding a third item to that list.

The second major event was Puerto Rico's primary, which Hillary Clinton won big. How big? So big that Barack Obama started the day needing 66 delegates to secure the nomination and ended it needing just 47. This result caused Hillary Clinton to proclaim, in an email to supporters, "Today in Puerto Rico, the voters spoke with a powerful voice to say that this race is not over yet."

Not over yet. But soon. As in, probably later this week. And no, this isn't the pundocracy speaking: it's Clinton's National Co-Chair (and former Iowa governor) Tom Vilsack, who told the Associated Press yesterday, "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."

Last, but by no means least, Saturday marked the end of the second quarter fundraising period for the campaigns. Neither Clinton nor Obama have released their fundraising totals for this latest period quite yet, but those numbers will drive the outcome of this final stage of the race perhaps more forcefully than either the Rules Committee or the Puerto Rico primary. But we'll have to stay tuned for that.

McCain and the New GI Bill

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 242

The U.S. Senate is currently debating legislation that would enhance veterans' educational benefits. Commonly referred to as the "New GI Bill," the legislation, authored by Democratic Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, would pay for books and tuition at a four-year public university for anyone who has served at least three years in uniform since September 11, 2001. The bill passed the Housed by a huge margin earlier this month, and currently has 58 co-sponsors in the Senate, including 11 Republicans. You might think that, as one of the higher-profile veterans in the Senate, John McCain would be among those supporting this legislation. You would be wrong.

McCain opposes this bill, as does - surprise! - President Bush, who is threatening a veto. Their argument: the bill is too generous to veterans, and provides an incentive for those currently in uniform to leave the military at the end of their current enlistment in order to cash in.

To oppose the bill for those reasons is not only ludicrous, but deeply insulting to those serving our country in uniform. Do McCain and Bush really think that service men and woman, who have volunteered during wartime to wear the uniform, are re-enlisting only because they have nowhere better to go? The suggestion that those who daily risk their lives for this country and endure grave hardship for themselves and their families in the course of their multiple deployments overseas could possibly be so feckless that they would walk away from the military en masse solely to cash in on the educational benefits of one piece of legislation, that their dedication would be overthrown by the promise of a little more money for college, is the deepest affront toward our military men and women that could be conceived. In my book, anyone who puts his or her life on the line to serve our country deserves every benefit we can bestow, and far more than we currently offer. Nothing we can offer them is adequate when compared to the risks and sacrifices they shoulder, and the notion that we're being too generous in sending them through college after sending them into combat is patently absurd.

Speaking from the floor of the Senate today, Barack Obama took aim at Senator McCain over his opposition to this bill:

"I respect Senator John McCain's service to our country. He is one of those heroes of which I speak. But I can't understand why he would line up behind the president in opposition to this GI bill. I can't believe why he believes it is too generous to our veterans. I could not disagree with him and the president more on this issue. There are many issues that lend themselves to partisan posturing, but giving our veterans the chance to go to college should not be one of them."

(video of Obama's remarks can be found here.)

Senator McCain was quick to issue an angry reply to Obama's remarks. But McCain's rejoinder didn't come from the Senate floor: it came via press release from California, where John McCain is too busy raising campaign cash to even be bothered to return to the Senate to participate in the debate over this bill and have the courtesy, to say no more, of going on the record as voting against it. Such is the judgment and conduct of the man who is telling America that he can be trusted to do a better job than Barack Obama as Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

Kentucky and Oregon: Virtual Spin Room

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 243

The morning after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, here's what the candidates want you to think:


Hillary Clinton

Once again tonight, you and I stood together and showed America what we're made of.

Every time we win another state, we prove something about ourselves and about our country. And did we ever prove something tonight in Kentucky.

We showed America that the voters know what the "experts" will never understand -- that in our great democracy, elections are about more than candidates running, pundits commenting, or ads blaring.

They're about every one of us having his or her say about the path we choose as a nation. The people of Kentucky have declared that this race isn't over yet, and I'm listening to them -- and to you.

Your unshakeable commitment to that principle and your willingness to keep forging ahead inspire me every day. Let's keep supporting one another in these crucial days ahead.

All the best,
Hillary

Barack Obama

The polls are closed in Kentucky and votes are being counted in Oregon, and it's clear that tonight we have reached a major milestone on this journey.

We have won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people in this Democratic primary process.

From the beginning, this journey wasn't about me or the other candidates. It was about a simple choice -- will we continue down the same road with the same leadership that has failed us for so long, or will we take a different path?

Too many of us have been disappointed by politics and politicians more times than you can count. We've seen promises broken and good ideas drowned in a sea of influence, point-scoring, and petty bickering that has consumed Washington.

Yet, in spite of all the doubt and disappointment -- or perhaps because of it -- people have stood for change.

Unfortunately, our opponents in the other party continue to embrace yesterday's policies and they will continue to employ yesterday's tactics -- they will try to change the subject, and they will play on fears and divisions to distract us from what matters to you and your future.

But those tactics will not work in this election.

They won't work because you won't let them.

Not this time. Not this year.

We still have work to do to in the remaining states, where we will compete for every delegate available.

But tonight, I want to thank you for everything you have done to take us this far -- farther than anyone predicted, expected, or even believed possible.

And I want to remind you that you will make all the difference in the epic challenge ahead.

Thank you,

Barack Obama

Prelude to the End of the Game

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 257

Last night's primary results from North Carolina and Indiana provide one of the campaign's more resonant moments. Hillary Clinton's whisker-thin win in Indiana, coupled with Barack Obama's decisive win in North Carolina, looks as if it may have the potential to recast the Democratic race to a degree not seen since the first contests in January. And, yes, if I could make that statement any more qualified, I would.

The problem with making unqualified, sweeping statements is, of course, that the race itself has tended so little toward the definitive. Even so, some factors are beginning to jell that portend the shape of the campaign at its final conclusion.

There's the math, to begin with. According to AP, Barack Obama took 94 delegates last night, compared with Hillary Clinton's 75, which leaves him about 185 delegates short of the 2,025 needed to nominate (the delegate score now is Obama 1,840 - Clinton 1,688). There are six contest remaining, with a total of 217 pledged delegates up for grabs. The Obama campaign circulated a memo earlier today claiming that Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to draw even with Obama; thanks to the proportional award rules of the Democratic party, such overwhelming victories would only be likely in the event that Obama's name disappeared from the ballot altogether.

And then there are the remaining uncommitted super delegates, about 270 of them. One of the most damaging aspects of last night's results for Hillary Clinton is the weakening of her case to this audience. Consider that in the run up to the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Clinton had the wind at her back coming out of Pennsylvania, and Obama had been enduring the most miserable four weeks of his political career. And the result? Obama crushed Clinton in North Carolina, where her campaign, and her husband the former president, had been working frantically to engineer an upset victory, and Clinton came out the winner in Indiana by a mere 18,440 votes out of 1,265,028 total votes cast. That is a margin of 1.4%, and that was the good news for Clinton last night. Given the the favorable political environment for Clinton, a question being asked today is if Hillary couldn't land a body blow on Obama in these circumstances, when could she be expected to do so? That doesn't lend itself to the electability argument Clinton has been pressing on the super delegates.

Finally, there's the money, or, in Clinton's case, the lack of it. It emerged earlier today that Clinton has made loans of a further $6.4 million to her campaign, on top of the $5 million she had already loaned back in January. Following last night's results, and in light of the fact that many of her biggest donors have already contributed the maximum possible amount toward the primary campaign, where will the money come from to fund Hillary Clinton's campaign?

To sum up: in order to turn things around and deny Barack Obama the nomination, Hillary Clinton needs primary votes that aren't there, super delegates that aren't being persuaded by her electoral performance, money that can't be found and time which has all but run out.

But, this campaign being what it is, those factors are unlikely spell the immediate conclusion one might think. Lurking in the calendar is a May 31 meeting of the Democratic Party rules committee, where the issue of what to do about leapfrogging Michigan and Florida will be, to put it mildly, debated. And then there's the party's Credentialing Committee meeting later in the summer. And then there's the convention in August.

It ain't over 'til it's over. And over. And over...

Polls: Clinton Erases Obama's National Lead

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 262

Two polls released today show Hillary Clinton has made progress over the last month in narrowing rival Barack Obama's lead in national preference polls.

The polls show Obama leading Clinton by very narrow margins nationally, with results well within the margins of error. In one poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, Obama leads Clinton 47% - 45%, while in the other, conducted by CNN - Opinion Research Corp., Obama leads Clinton 46% - 45%. These numbers are in line with Real Clear Politics' national averages, showing Obama currently leading Clinton by about 1.6%.

The numbers in these polls do not come as a surprise after what has been a bruising month for the Obama campaign, following a significant loss to Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and renewed media attention on the Jeremiah Wright non-story. If anything, these numbers re-emphasize the importance of next Tuesday's voting in Indiana and North Carolina in either altering or reinforcing the current narrative of the campaign for both Clinton and Obama.

A Gallup poll taken early last month showed Obama with a 9% lead over Clinton nationally.