Hillary Clinton at the Convention: What's at Stake

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 147

When Hillary Clinton takes the podium this evening to address the Democratic National Convention, she faces not only the assembled delegates, not only an army of media and the scrutiny of the nation and a good part of the world. Tonight, Hillary Clinton faces a choice.

The fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton, even in defeat, is a formidable presence in the convention hall, in the U.S. Senate, and in the the Democratic party. But even more significant, in the aftermath of her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton has acquired something she never truly possessed before: her own constituency. The stories and speeches from the campaign trail of women of every age, region, background, and yes, race, investing Hillary with the mantle of their aspirations for the future political, social and economic condition of women made for good copy, yes, but was far more than just hype. It was, in a way we have never had opportunity to witness before, hope: hope for millions, as audacious any dream on offer this cycle.

And therein lays Hillary's choice tonight. Having rallied a constituency to her side, what does she do with it: lead, follow, or even step away entirely?

To lead tonight, Hillary Clinton will need to make clear, as only she can, that the Democratic Party is absolutely, without qualification or caveat, Barack Obama's to command. Hillary Clinton would need to tell her supporters, in so many words, that to support her is to support Obama, and there is no place in her train for those who claim otherwise.

To follow, Hillary would need to do merely the reverse: say that, of course, she supports Barack Obama, because he won and party duty requires her to publicly campaign for him, and then spend the bulk of her address paying tribute to the efforts of those who sought a different outcome.

Finally, Hillary Clinton could make an entirely different choice: to focus not on the campaign just past, but on the future waiting to be won or lost in the outcome of this election. That would entail, of necessity, unqualified support for Barack Obama, but something more, and something greater still: a bona fide vision of what America can become as a result of this historic campaign. In short, she would need to make the speech she planned to make to the convention had she prevailed in the primaries, shorn of "vote for me" and infused, instead, with the promise of what can be if Democrats win up and down the ballot this fall.

Admittedly, such a speech would be a tall order for any politician, and for Hillary Clinton perhaps more than most. But if she were to deliver such an address, she would awaken tomorrow to find herself to be the leader she has always aspired to become.

Pros and Cons of HRC 4 VP

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

Charles Babington over at AP has drawn up a list of pros and cons Barack Obama might consider when mulling over whether to name Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Babbington's take isn't meant to be heavyweight analysis, but he does make a couple of good points. My favorites, quoting from the article:

Pro: She brings a proven team of fundraisers, planners and volunteers to the ticket.

Con: Why not get two for the price of one? To safeguard her husband's legacy and her own ambition, Hillary Clinton surely must campaign vigorously and wholeheartedly for you, whether she's on the ticket or not. Let her do so while you pick a running mate who brings other strengths.

Pro: She might put Arkansas in play. Bush won the state easily in 2004, but maybe the state's former first lady, whose husband's presidential library is in Little Rock, can put it in your column.

Con: She has dubious taste in music. Throughout Pennsylvania she played the theme from "Rocky," a movie about a white protagonist who beats up a black man before losing to him. And she made a Celine Dion tune her official campaign song. Enough said.

Her Last Bow

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 229

From the inbox overnight:

"I wanted you to be one of the first to know: on Saturday, I will hold an event in Washington D.C. to thank everyone who has supported my campaign. Over the course of the last 16 months, I have been privileged and touched to witness the incredible dedication and sacrifice of so many people working for our campaign. Every minute you put into helping us win, every dollar you gave to keep up the fight meant more to me than I can ever possibly tell you.

On Saturday, I will extend my congratulations to Senator Obama and my support for his candidacy. This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Senator Obama are small compared to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.

I have said throughout the campaign that I would strongly support Senator Obama if he were the Democratic Party's nominee, and I intend to deliver on that promise.

When I decided to run for president, I knew exactly why I was getting into this race: to work hard every day for the millions of Americans who need a voice in the White House.

I made you -- and everyone who supported me -- a promise: to stand up for our shared values and to never back down. I'm going to keep that promise today, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I will be speaking on Saturday about how together we can rally the party behind Senator Obama. The stakes are too high and the task before us too important to do otherwise.

I know as I continue my lifelong work for a stronger America and a better world, I will turn to you for the support, the strength, and the commitment that you have shown me in the past 16 months. And I will always keep faith with the issues and causes that are important to you.

In the past few days, you have shown that support once again with hundreds of thousands of messages to the campaign, and again, I am touched by your thoughtfulness and kindness.

I can never possibly express my gratitude, so let me say simply, thank you.

Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton"

Triple Witching Weekend

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 231

The weekend just past will likely go down as a significant two days in this cycle's Democratic presidential nominating process, with three events combining to put their stamp on the color and shape of things as we near the end of the race.

First and foremost, there was the DNC Rules Committee meeting on Saturday. I don't have a verbatim transcript of the proceedings, but here is the gist, based on hand-written notes I made of key portions of the committee's televised deliberations:
"Shut up!"
"No, you shut up!"
"Make me!"
"Maybe I will! Gosh!"

Such elevated discourse aside, the substantive outcome of the meeting was that the delegate total needed to nominate has risen from 2026 to 2118, based on the seating arrangements for the Michigan and Florida delegations agreed to by the committee. The result was that Barack Obama's number of remaining delegates needed to nominate increased to 66, while Hillary Clinton's margin narrowed tantalizingly from "stupendously out of reach" to "outlandishly remote."

Incidentally, the committee vote on Michigan, by far the more contentious issue on the table, was 19-8; thirteen members of the committee had already publicly pledged support for Hillary Clinton, and, as the vote shows, they failed to keep their own block in line to vote for their proposal to deny any delegates to Barack Obama. Further proof, if any is needed, that, bravado aside, the fact that the nomination has slipped through Clinton's fingers is starting to register even on some of her most committed (and influential) supporters.

A maxim attributed to Otto von Bismarck maintains that there are two things you never want to allow people to see being made: laws and sausages. I think the Rules Committee meeting makes a powerful case for adding a third item to that list.

The second major event was Puerto Rico's primary, which Hillary Clinton won big. How big? So big that Barack Obama started the day needing 66 delegates to secure the nomination and ended it needing just 47. This result caused Hillary Clinton to proclaim, in an email to supporters, "Today in Puerto Rico, the voters spoke with a powerful voice to say that this race is not over yet."

Not over yet. But soon. As in, probably later this week. And no, this isn't the pundocracy speaking: it's Clinton's National Co-Chair (and former Iowa governor) Tom Vilsack, who told the Associated Press yesterday, "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."

Last, but by no means least, Saturday marked the end of the second quarter fundraising period for the campaigns. Neither Clinton nor Obama have released their fundraising totals for this latest period quite yet, but those numbers will drive the outcome of this final stage of the race perhaps more forcefully than either the Rules Committee or the Puerto Rico primary. But we'll have to stay tuned for that.

Ready For Her Close Up, Or You Write the Caption

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 236

Some photos are too priceless to pass up. A case in point: this photo taken yesterday by AP photographer Elise Amendola.



Worth quite a bit more than a thousand words.

Kentucky and Oregon: Virtual Spin Room

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 243

The morning after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, here's what the candidates want you to think:


Hillary Clinton

Once again tonight, you and I stood together and showed America what we're made of.

Every time we win another state, we prove something about ourselves and about our country. And did we ever prove something tonight in Kentucky.

We showed America that the voters know what the "experts" will never understand -- that in our great democracy, elections are about more than candidates running, pundits commenting, or ads blaring.

They're about every one of us having his or her say about the path we choose as a nation. The people of Kentucky have declared that this race isn't over yet, and I'm listening to them -- and to you.

Your unshakeable commitment to that principle and your willingness to keep forging ahead inspire me every day. Let's keep supporting one another in these crucial days ahead.

All the best,
Hillary

Barack Obama

The polls are closed in Kentucky and votes are being counted in Oregon, and it's clear that tonight we have reached a major milestone on this journey.

We have won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people in this Democratic primary process.

From the beginning, this journey wasn't about me or the other candidates. It was about a simple choice -- will we continue down the same road with the same leadership that has failed us for so long, or will we take a different path?

Too many of us have been disappointed by politics and politicians more times than you can count. We've seen promises broken and good ideas drowned in a sea of influence, point-scoring, and petty bickering that has consumed Washington.

Yet, in spite of all the doubt and disappointment -- or perhaps because of it -- people have stood for change.

Unfortunately, our opponents in the other party continue to embrace yesterday's policies and they will continue to employ yesterday's tactics -- they will try to change the subject, and they will play on fears and divisions to distract us from what matters to you and your future.

But those tactics will not work in this election.

They won't work because you won't let them.

Not this time. Not this year.

We still have work to do to in the remaining states, where we will compete for every delegate available.

But tonight, I want to thank you for everything you have done to take us this far -- farther than anyone predicted, expected, or even believed possible.

And I want to remind you that you will make all the difference in the epic challenge ahead.

Thank you,

Barack Obama

Prelude to the End of the Game

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 257

Last night's primary results from North Carolina and Indiana provide one of the campaign's more resonant moments. Hillary Clinton's whisker-thin win in Indiana, coupled with Barack Obama's decisive win in North Carolina, looks as if it may have the potential to recast the Democratic race to a degree not seen since the first contests in January. And, yes, if I could make that statement any more qualified, I would.

The problem with making unqualified, sweeping statements is, of course, that the race itself has tended so little toward the definitive. Even so, some factors are beginning to jell that portend the shape of the campaign at its final conclusion.

There's the math, to begin with. According to AP, Barack Obama took 94 delegates last night, compared with Hillary Clinton's 75, which leaves him about 185 delegates short of the 2,025 needed to nominate (the delegate score now is Obama 1,840 - Clinton 1,688). There are six contest remaining, with a total of 217 pledged delegates up for grabs. The Obama campaign circulated a memo earlier today claiming that Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to draw even with Obama; thanks to the proportional award rules of the Democratic party, such overwhelming victories would only be likely in the event that Obama's name disappeared from the ballot altogether.

And then there are the remaining uncommitted super delegates, about 270 of them. One of the most damaging aspects of last night's results for Hillary Clinton is the weakening of her case to this audience. Consider that in the run up to the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Clinton had the wind at her back coming out of Pennsylvania, and Obama had been enduring the most miserable four weeks of his political career. And the result? Obama crushed Clinton in North Carolina, where her campaign, and her husband the former president, had been working frantically to engineer an upset victory, and Clinton came out the winner in Indiana by a mere 18,440 votes out of 1,265,028 total votes cast. That is a margin of 1.4%, and that was the good news for Clinton last night. Given the the favorable political environment for Clinton, a question being asked today is if Hillary couldn't land a body blow on Obama in these circumstances, when could she be expected to do so? That doesn't lend itself to the electability argument Clinton has been pressing on the super delegates.

Finally, there's the money, or, in Clinton's case, the lack of it. It emerged earlier today that Clinton has made loans of a further $6.4 million to her campaign, on top of the $5 million she had already loaned back in January. Following last night's results, and in light of the fact that many of her biggest donors have already contributed the maximum possible amount toward the primary campaign, where will the money come from to fund Hillary Clinton's campaign?

To sum up: in order to turn things around and deny Barack Obama the nomination, Hillary Clinton needs primary votes that aren't there, super delegates that aren't being persuaded by her electoral performance, money that can't be found and time which has all but run out.

But, this campaign being what it is, those factors are unlikely spell the immediate conclusion one might think. Lurking in the calendar is a May 31 meeting of the Democratic Party rules committee, where the issue of what to do about leapfrogging Michigan and Florida will be, to put it mildly, debated. And then there's the party's Credentialing Committee meeting later in the summer. And then there's the convention in August.

It ain't over 'til it's over. And over. And over...

Polls: Clinton Erases Obama's National Lead

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 262

Two polls released today show Hillary Clinton has made progress over the last month in narrowing rival Barack Obama's lead in national preference polls.

The polls show Obama leading Clinton by very narrow margins nationally, with results well within the margins of error. In one poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, Obama leads Clinton 47% - 45%, while in the other, conducted by CNN - Opinion Research Corp., Obama leads Clinton 46% - 45%. These numbers are in line with Real Clear Politics' national averages, showing Obama currently leading Clinton by about 1.6%.

The numbers in these polls do not come as a surprise after what has been a bruising month for the Obama campaign, following a significant loss to Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and renewed media attention on the Jeremiah Wright non-story. If anything, these numbers re-emphasize the importance of next Tuesday's voting in Indiana and North Carolina in either altering or reinforcing the current narrative of the campaign for both Clinton and Obama.

A Gallup poll taken early last month showed Obama with a 9% lead over Clinton nationally.

That Was The Week That Was

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 269

A few quick glances askance going into the weekend.

Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday is still being hotly debated: does this mark the beginning of the end for Barack Obama, or is it, despite the 10-point margin of victory for Hillary Clinton, her last hurrah on the way to the political wilderness? Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post, among others, takes the former view, while Madison Powers of Congressional Quarterly sees Clinton limping out of the Keystone State "broke, bitter, and diminished in national stature."

Meanwhile, a new poll from Indiana, which is shaping up as the next battleground and goes to the polls on May 6, comes up a virtual tie with Obama at 48% and Clinton at 47%. AP notes, "A similar poll conducted March 31-April 2 found 49 percent support for Clinton, with Obama's support at 46 percent. The new poll asked which candidate had run the more negative campaign, with 48 percent saying Clinton, 23 percent Obama and 21 percent equal."

John McCain, meanwhile, continues coasting on the FreeRide Express. McCain's wink-and-nod plea to the North Carolina GOP not to run an anti-Obama ad is the presumptive nominee's latest "maverick" moment: he gets to promote himself as an above-the-fray statesman while at the same time raising the profile of the ad that he ostensibly opposes and that the NC GOP runs anyway. I'm beginning to wonder whether McCain is actually starting to buy into the damaged Democrats theme that been the flavor of the week in the mainstream media, and thinks as a result that his rise in the poll reflects something other than just seven weeks of nobody running against him. If so, here's a word of advice for Senator McCain: though it is dragging on longer than most expected, the Democratic nomination battle will end in plenty of time for the party to unify around its eventual candidate, and against you. When that happens, you will find yourself at the wrong end of the toughest campaign you've ever imagined. Enjoy the holiday while you may.

Thank God It's Tuesday

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 272

Today is the date of the oh-so-long-awaited Pennsylvania primary, and the results could be decisive in determining the outcome of the Democratic nomination process.

A few background notes:

• Pennsylvania is the largest of the 10 remaining Democratic nominating contests this year, with 158 pledged delegates up for grabs; the Keystone State will also send 29 super delegates to August's Democratic National Convention in Denver.

• The most recent polling average calculated by Real Clear Politics gives Hillary Clinton a 6.1% advantage over Obama among Pennsylvania Democrats. If this holds, will a 6% margin of victory for Clinton be enough to sustain her campaign amid the ongoing calls for her to exit the race? An old adage in politics is that a win is a win is a win, but that may not hold true for Clinton unless her margin of victory significantly exceeds expectations.

• A recent district-by-district analysis by Congressional Quarterly predicts that Clinton will bring home 53 delegates to Obama's 50, a net gain of only 3 delegates. Definitely something to watch when the returns start coming in.
  [UPDATE: the Washington Post has published this helpful info: "The state has a two-part primary ballot, with voters choosing a presidential candidate and also picking from a slate of local delegates. Essentially, each of the state's 19 congressional districts runs a separate contest for delegates, weighted according to turnout in recent elections. A total of 103 delegates will be awarded according to each district's popular vote, while the remaining 84 will be distributed according to the statewide popular vote, or as unpledged superdelegates."]
  

• From the standpoint of immediate practicality, perhaps more important for the shape of the race than popular vote totals and delegate hauls will be how Pennsylvania's results influence campaign fundraising, particularly for Hillary Clinton. FEC reports released a few days ago show Clinton's campaign $10.3 million in debt with just $9.3 million cash on hand at the beginning of April. Barack Obama, by contrast, began April with $42 million in cash on hand and only $663,000 in debt. If the results in Pennsylvania don't provide the needed encouragement for donors to open their wallets - big time and in a hurry - for Hillary Clinton, that may be the ball game in and of itself, irrespective of other factors.

Pennsylvania as been famously described as Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in between. Having lived in Philadelphia for more than five years and volunteering there for John Kerry in 2004, I can vouch for there being some truth in this. Pennsylvania is a sprawling, complex state, and is likely to deliver results to match.

Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich Endorses Obama

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 276

While he's not Bruce Springsteen, Robert Reich's endorsement of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton is still a semi-big deal. Why? Because previous high-profile Obama endorsers like Chris Dodd or Bill Richardson have explained their choice in terms of what they see as Obama's leadership qualities and a host of other intangibles; Reich touches on these, as well, but the heart of his endorsement center on what he views as Obama's superior policy chops. Here's a key excerpt:

"Although Hillary Clinton has offered solid and sensible policy proposals, Obama's strike me as even more so. His plans for reforming Social Security and health care have a better chance of succeeding. His approaches to the housing crisis and the failures of our financial markets are sounder than hers. His ideas for improving our public schools and confronting the problems of poverty and inequality are more coherent and compelling. He has put forward the more enlightened foreign policy and the more thoughtful plan for controlling global warming."

One of the more consistent threads running through the commentary on this cycle's Democratic nominating process has been that whether you love her or hate her, Hillary Clinton's undeniable, unassailable strong suit is her depth and breadth of knowledge on policy matters. Reich directly challenges that perception.

Of course, most voters would struggle to identify who Robert Reich is, so this endorsement is unlikely to resonate in the voting booths of Pennsylvania and the other remaining primary states. To a greater or lessor degree, that's true of endorsements generally. But coming it as it does from not only a long-time Clinton associate, but the Clinton administration official who was arguably the biggest policy geek in the Cabinet, Reich's endorsement is nonetheless likely to carry some weight, notably among uncommitted superdelegates.

Quote of the Day

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 279

From Arianna Huffington:

By cynically twisting Obama's comments about small town voters in a way that confirms every right-wing demagogic caricature of her own Party, Hillary Clinton has adopted the frames, lies, stereotypes and destructive clichés long embraced by the likes of Lee Atwater and Karl Rove. She has clearly decided that the road to victory runs through scorched earth. The question is, if she succeeds, what kind of Party will she be left to lead? She's burning down the village to save it -- or to prove that she would make the best fire chief. But the village won't be saved; only one house will be left standing. A house with room for just two occupants: Hill and Bill.

I am not, and never have been, 100% sold on Barack Obama. There are things I like about the junior senator from Illinois, and some things that make me scratch my head. And up until the past few weeks, I had felt pretty much the same way about Hillary Clinton. Publishers have sent me Hillary-bashing books in hopes I would write a laudatory review, and I've passed, for the simple reason that I refuse to be party to the ongoing poisoning of what now passes for political discourse in the United States. I felt assurance that whichever candidate, Clinton or Obama, emerged as the Democratic nominee in Denver, they would be obvious improvements over President Bush. They would make things better. Things would be different.

Which makes this latest twist from Senator Clinton all the more infuriating. If anyone had told me a year ago that Hillary Clinton would provide the basis for a headline like today's "McCain Echoes Clinton's Attacks" in the Washington Post, I wouldn't have believed it. I'm having a hard time believing it even as I type this. I realize Clinton is perhaps insurmountably behind Obama in both pledged delegates and popular votes won this year, but these latest attacks go beyond desperate, sending her deep into blind flailing. The fact that Senator Clinton has herself so often been the object of similar attacks from Republicans makes it all the more incomprehensible, to me, at least, that she should now not only employ those same tactics against a fellow Democrat, but make common cause with the Republican she hopes to face in the general election in November.

There is not, and never has been, any doubt about Hillary Clinton's instinct for the jugular. Her toughness as a candidate is widely recognized, a source of admiration for her supporters and opponents alike, and indispensable for a woman making a serious run for the White House. But if Hillary Clinton truly aspires to lead America, as opposed to merely being elected president, she must, if she still can, show herself to be more than a skilled player of political bloodsport. And she must do so now, or risk ceding all political ground save the gutter to clearer heads and other voices.

Clinton Taps Evan Bayh for First Indiana Ad

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 286

Hillary Clinton has launched her first TV ad in Indiana. Titled "Steel," the 30-second spot features Hoosier favorite son and U.S. Senator Evan Bayh speaking directly to the camera about Clinton's leadership qualities.

Indiana, which holds its primary on May 6, has been seeing Obama on the airwaves since the debut of the Illinois senator's "For Decades" ad on March 28. Both ads stress economic and trade fairness themes, with Obama's ad carrying the extra message urging Indiana voters to register before the state's April 7 deadline.

Here's the script for Clinton's new ad:

BAYH: "America faces challenging times. We need a leader who'll fight for good jobs, change trade deals like NAFTA, cut taxes for middle-class families. Someone who's ready to be commander in chief from day one. That leader? Hillary Clinton.

"I've known Hillary for twenty years. She's got a spine of steel. She'll fight for our jobs, our troops, and the America we love. Strong. Seasoned. She'll always stand up for us."

CLINTON: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."

And here's the video:



Anyone looking for a quick shift in message following Mark Penn's departure as Clinton's chief campaign strategist won't see it in this ad. The spot continues the "strength and experience" theme, long a favorite of Penn's, even as other senior campaign officials have urged greater emphasis on Hillary Clinton's human side.

Gallup: Obama Leads Clinton by 9% Nationally

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 287

According to the Gallup organization, Barack Obama has opened a "statistically significant" lead of nine percentage points over Hillary Clinton in the latest nation-wide survey of voter preference in the Democratic presidential race.

Obama drew support from 52% of respondents, compared to 43% for Clinton. Obama's 52% ties his high-water mark for the year against Clinton.

Also of interest, the poll indicated that both Clinton and Obama poll at 45% against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; McCain polls at 45% against Obama, putting the two in a dead tie, while the Arizona Senator leads Clinton by a slight 47% - 45% margin.

The poll of 1,240 voters was taken April 4-6, and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Full results from Gallup can be found here.

After Mark Penn

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 287

Mark Penn, the pollster who has directed strategy for Hillary Clinton since she entered the presidential race last year, has left his post at the top of Clinton's campaign.

Penn "stepped down" - and seldom has a euphemism been more apropos - under pressure yesterday after work he had been doing in support of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Columbia became the object of media attention. It is worth noting that the Columbia deal is not the first time Penn has attracted attention for playing perhaps too many angles at once: the PR and lobbying firm of which Penn is chief executive, even while he has directed strategy for the Clinton campaign, has also represented Countrywide Financial, of sub-prime mortgage fame, as well as Blackwater Worldwide, the security contractor whose actions in Iraq have sparked considerable controversy. Hillary Clinton, of course, has spoken repeatedly on the campaign trail of her opposition to further trade deals and has been vocal in her criticism of financial firms like Countrywide. Taken together, it's been a whole lot of chainsaws for Mark Penn to juggle at the same time.

Penn is said to be widely disliked throughout the Clinton campaign, but had remained afloat heretofore due to his close relationship with both Hillary and Bill Clinton. But Penn's run as chief strategist finally ended when both Clintons reportedly reacted with fury to the news that, in addition to his firm representing Columbia on the trade deal, Penn personally met with Columbian officials about the pact March 31.

I can't help that recall that Austan Goolsbee, Barack Obama's senior economic policy adviser, was excoriated by the Clinton campaign last month - with Mark Penn leading the charge - for supposedly double-talking the Obama campaign's position on trade deals vis-a-vis Canada. The controversy generated over that incident was seen by many as tripping up Barack Obama in Ohio, and, to a lesser extent, Texas.

With just two weeks to go before a must-win primary in Pennsylvania, news that Hillary Clinton's top campaign official was working to secure a trade deal when all such pacts are viewed with suspicion, if not outright hostility, by the white working class voters Clinton has been frantically courting for the past six weeks, the timing of this development could hardly have been worse for the Clinton campaign. Added to last week's news that Barack Obama had out-fundraised Hillary Clinton by two-to-one in March, the Penn story further undermines the "we've got momentum!" story line the Clinton campaign has been working hard to sell since March 4th's primaries in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont.

But for all that, there's a silver lining in for the Clinton campaign in the Mark Penn story. Whatever his flaws of temperament and judgment, Mark Penn is a world-class pollster and political mind, and he will remain with the Clinton campaign as a pollster and adviser. Don't forget that Mark Penn authored the "Children" ad, famous for the 3:00 A.M. phone call gimmick, that many credit with greatly helping Clinton in Texas. The Clinton campaign retains access to Penn's skills, but, with Penn no longer calling the shots, may find itself freed from the considerable baggage Penn carried with him both inside the campaign and with the media. And that may be not only the the best of both worlds, but, in hindsight, the role that Penn may have been best suited for from the beginning.

It is a bitter pill for Mark Penn to swallow at the moment, but in the long run it may be just what the doctor ordered for Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Clinton On the Air in Pennsylvania

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 300

Following Barck Obama's Pennsylvania ad debut yesterday, Hillary Clinton has put up her first ad in the Keystone State. Interestingly, the 30-second spot, titled "Level," is an ad the Clinton campaign previously ran in Ohio. One could infer from this either that the Clinton campaign plans to re-run its successful Ohio campaign in Pennsylvania, or is too financially strapped to produce a new ad in Pennsylvania. Or quite probably both.

Here's the script for the ad:

"Announcer: She’s fighting for America’s middle class.

Clinton: It’s time to level the playing field against the special interests.

Announcer: She’ll end $55 billion dollars in giveaways to corporate special interests and invest it in middle class tax cuts and creating new jobs. She’ll get tough on unfair trade deals and end tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas.

Clinton: Standing up for people who weren’t getting a fair shake, that’s been the purpose of my life. And it will be the purpose of my presidency. I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message."

And here's the video:

Dueling Campaign Swag

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 300

We're still weeks away from the next primary, but the Clinton and Obama campaigns aren't taking any time off, to judge by what's been hitting my inbox this week.

As you might well guess, fund raising has been high on the docket for both candidates since the last round of contests on March 4, with both camps ratcheting up the frequency and urgency of their appeals for contributions to fund the (endlessly) on-going nomination race. Today, however, ushers in a new level of inducement from both Clinton and Obama.

First came an email from the Obama campaign offering four contributors a dinner with the candidate in exchange for a contribution. Call it "Party of Five" meets Powerball:

"Some of Barack's favorite moments of the campaign have been opportunities to meet and talk with the most important donors to this campaign: ordinary Americans just like you.

You've heard about all of these political fundraising dinners, hosted by Washington lobbyists and filled with representatives of special interests.

Contributions like these are at the root of what's wrong with politics. And John McCain and Hillary Clinton have built campaigns fueled by them.

But our campaign is different.

In February alone, more than 94% of our donors gave in amounts of $200 or less. Meanwhile, campaign finance reports show that donations of $200 or less make up just 13% of Senator McCain's total campaign funds, and only 26% of Senator Clinton's.

Our funding comes from a movement of more than one million people giving whatever they can afford.

And in the next week, four supporters will be selected for a new kind of fundraising dinner.

Make a donation in any amount between now and 11:59 pm EDT on Monday, March 31st, and you could join Barack and three other supporters for an intimate dinner for five.

We're reserving two of those seats for previous donors like you. Make your donation now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/dinner

This movement is changing the way campaigns are funded.

More than one million individual donors have demonstrated that this election is about more than a candidate -- it's about each of us having a personal stake in the future of American politics.

Meanwhile, Senator McCain has raised more than 70% of his total campaign funds from high-dollar donors giving $1,000 or more. Senator Clinton has raised 60% of her funds from $1,000-and-up donors. And both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton have accepted millions of dollars from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs.

Refusing to accept donations from lobbyists and special interests has allowed this campaign to answer only to ordinary Americans like you. And this dinner will be an opportunity for you to sit down with Barack and your fellow supporters and talk about the issues that matter in your life and in your community.

Get the kind of treatment that John McCain and Hillary Clinton reserve for special interests -- make a donation in the next week, and you could share your story and your ideas with Barack in person:

https://donate.barackobama.com/dinner

With every single donation, we're building a movement to change American politics. Help the movement grow, and own a piece of this campaign today.

Thanks for your support,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America"

For those with no appetite for the Obama campaign's offer of a seat at the table with their candidate during a group dinner date, the Clinton campaign sent out an email a little while later soliciting cash in exchange for a round-trip to New York and a one-night stand with their candidate:

"Contribute today and you could see Hillary and Elton. In the interest of harmony -- and melody -- I promise you there won't be any duets.

I'm really looking forward to the solo concert my friend Elton John is throwing in New York to help our campaign -- and I would very much like the chance to meet you there.

We're sending two supporters, along with their guests, to New York with VIP tickets for this very special, one-night-only concert on April 9, and it could be you. We will have a chance to talk just you and I -- and you will get to meet Elton John at the party we're throwing afterwards. It's going to be a great night.

Your support is so important to my campaign right now. As we ramp up our campaign in Pennsylvania, I need your help to make sure we have the resources we need to win. If you enter, you and I might see each other in New York on April 9. Make a contribution today.

Enter now for a chance to join me at Elton's solo concert in New York on April 9.

Elton's concert comes at such an exciting moment in our campaign. I'm seeing incredible enthusiasm as I travel across Pennsylvania and other states with upcoming contests.

We've got momentum at our backs, but a big task ahead of us. The Obama campaign is in the middle of a $3 million ad blitz in Pennsylvania, and we've got to do everything we can to overcome their fundraising advantage. Then we face competitive contests in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and Puerto Rico -- and we are already getting started in those states.

There's no better time to support our campaign, and no better way to do it than to make a contribution. And if you enter today, you may join me and Elton for a one-of-a-kind concert.

Enter now for a chance to join me at Elton's solo concert in New York on April 9.

Thank you so much for all your support. I hope you know how much you mean to me and my campaign.

Sincerely,

Hillary"

B-B-B-Benny and the (New York) Jets, perhaps? You know I read it a mag-a-zay-een...

Both offers are pretty amusing, and there's plenty of contrast between the two grand prizes to remark upon. But we will refrain from over-analyzing; this page is, after all, a political blog, not Vanity Fair.

But, if you're Vanity Fair, that doesn't mean we're not interested...

DFA Open Letter: "Fight McCain, Not Each Other"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 308

Sign me up. This note from Democracy for America hit my in box today:

The Democratic race for President has lost its focus. We have John McCain to beat in November, instead we fight each other.

Geraldine Ferraro. Reverend Wright. Rezko ties. Secret tax returns. If you're like me; you're sick of it.

We have a war to end, an economy in trouble, and $4 gas.

With hundreds of progressives to elect at all levels of office, it's time to leave the character attacks to Ann Coulter and Bill O'Reilly.

America needs to know why our candidates are better than John McCain and we need to hear it from Senators Clinton and Obama.

Fight McCain, not each other. Join me in signing an open letter to the candidates now:

www.DemocracyforAmerica.com/OpenLetter

We have an historic nomination battle, driving record Democratic turnout and commanding the nation's attention.

America needs to know our nominee will fight global warming with new jobs, technologies, and investment. Our nominee will expand health coverage to 10 million kids immediately, allow lifesaving research on stem cells, and work toward health care for all by the end of a first term. We will ban torture, restore habeas corpus, and build renewed respect for America around the world.

A Democratic President will end the war in Iraq and bring our brave men and women home.

A long primary battle is healthy as long as we make the case for how we'll win, not how the other candidate will lose. We need to fight McCain, not each other. Join me in demanding Senators Clinton and Obama keep their eyes on the ball.

www.DemocracyforAmerica.com/OpenLetter

Let voters choose our nominee based on the best we have to offer, not the worst we can imagine.

Senators Clinton and Obama say they are ready to lead. Now is their chance to prove it.

Thank you for everything you do to move America forward.

-Jim

Jim Dean
Chair

Clinton, Obama Likely to Debate Twice Before PA Primary

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 311

According to the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to face off in at least two debates between now and Pennsylvania's primary voting on April 22.

One debate, to be hosted by ABC news, would take place in Pennsylvania, with the date still to be finalized. The other, to be sponsored by CBS news, is scheduled to take place April 19 in North Carolina, which holds its own primary with 115 delegates at stake on May 6.

The Obama campaign has agreed to the North Carolina debate, but as yet there has been no firm commitment to appear from the Clinton campaign.

Keith Olbermann: Mindreader

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 312

Last night on MSNBC's "Countdown," host Keith Olbermann gave voice to what I've been thinking and feeling all week, but have been too sickened to write.



Ten minutes of unvarnished truth. Hear, hear.