Butterflies

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 77

Election Day is tomorrow. I can hardly believe it. After months and months of a campaign by turns exhilarating, exasperating, inspiring, and finally, exhausting, tomorrow the votes will be cast and the only poll that matters will tell us who will be our next president.

In the predictions department, I'm forecasting an Obama victory in the range of anywhere from 299 electoral votes on the low side to a probable maximum of 360. It is certainly possible for the total to come out even higher, but I would be stunned at a landslide of that magnitude. I suspect I would not be the only one.

I do not expect the balloting tomorrow to mirror the close-run votes of 2000 and 2004. I believe the results will be decisive to the extent that the all-too-predictable voting irregularities in Ohio and Florida will not keep us from knowing the result until later in the week. We will wake up Wednesday morning knowing the winners and losers.

The key battleground states in the presidential race remain Florida, Missouri and Ohio. I know the MSM maintains that Pennsylvania is not yet in the bag for Obama, but they're wrong; Pennsylvania will be called early in the evening, and when it is you can uncork the champaign for Barack.

As to the House and Senate, I'm looking for a Democratic gain of around 30 seats in the House and perhaps 8 in the Senate. That will leave Democrats shy of the vaunted 60 seat "super majority" in the Senate that would make life a lot easier for President Obama, but, looking at the data, it is hard to see how we get more than 58 Democratic senators. We'll just have to dig in and make up the difference in the 2010 midterms.

I also believe that election night is ever so much more fun if one has a scorecard, so I've picked CQ Politics' slate of bellweather races from the list of innumerable alternatives out there:

House races

Conn. 4th: Rep. Christopher Shays (R) vs. Jim Himes (D) — No Clear Favorite
Indiana 3rd: Rep. Mark Souder (R) vs. Michael Montagano (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 1st: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Steve Driehaus (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 2nd: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) vs. Vic Wulsin (D) — Leans Republican
Ohio 15th: Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) — No Clear Favorite
Ohio 16th: Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) — Leans Democratic
Wyo. At Large: Cynthia Lummis (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D) — No Clear Favorite


Senate races

Georgia: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D) — Leans Republican
Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D) — Leans Republican
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Rep. Tom Allen (D) — Leans Republican
Oregon: Sen. Gordon H. Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D) — No Clear Favorite

Outcomes in these races will give us a pretty solid idea of whether the oft-anticipated electoral Perfect Storm of 2008 will materialize.

I'll be spending tomorrow morning working a double shift as a poll watcher here in Des Moines, then drumming my fingers the rest of the afternoon waiting for the first polls to close. Butterflies. I want this one like Christmas morning.

Finally, if you haven't taken advantage of early voting, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4!

(can you hear me now?)

Everything You Need to Know

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 85

If you're scratching your head at the McCain campaign's recent emphasis on Iowa, a state looking increasingly out of reach for the GOP, it turns out you're not alone. To wit, this quote from today's New York Times:

"[Senator McCain's] decision to campaign on Sunday in Iowa, a day after Ms. Palin campaigned there, was questioned even by Republicans who noted polls that showed Mr. Obama pulling away there. But it reflected how few options the campaign really has, as poll after poll suggests that Mr. Obama is solidifying his position."

I encourage you to read the rest of the Times article. It all adds up to desperate times for a desperate John McCain, who, as Michael Dobbs might put it, is reduced to clutching at straws, his campaign closing in front of him like a fist.

By the way, I voted Saturday. It felt good.

Declare Yourself

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 109

This is what I want to say to you:

GOP Pundits Call "Political B.S." on McCain and Palin

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 138

Tell us something we don't already know:



The audio is a little garbled, so here's a transcript:

Mike Murphy, former McCain advisor: "You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor work. Engler, Whitman, Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. And these guys, this is all like how you want to (inaudible) this race. You know, just run it up. And it's not gonna work."

Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speechwriter: "It's over."

Murphy: "Still, McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good."

NBC's Chuck Todd: "Don't you think the Palin pick was insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too (inaudible)."

Noonan: "I saw Kay this morning."

Murphy: "They're all bummed out."

Todd: "I mean, is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?"

Noonan: "The most qualified? No. I think they went for this, excuse me, political [B.S.] about narratives and (inaudible) the picture."

Murphy: "I totally agree."

Noonan: "Every time the Republicans do that because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at and they blow it."

Murphy: "You know what's really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism and this is cynical."

Todd: "And as you called it, gimmicky."

Sarah Palin is the New Dan Quayle

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 144

Reports in the media this morning are that John McCain has selected a Right-wing no-name politician to be his running mate: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Two words: push over. Joe Biden will destroy Palin in a debate.

McCain's choice is clearly a dog-whistle move to try to cement his right flank, and does nothing to address McCain's main liability of being in the pocket of oil companies and other corporate interests and out of touch with every day Americans. Further, the selection of someone who has served less than two years in national office to be second in line for the oval office somewhat undercuts, to put it mildly, McCain's arguments about Barack Obama's readiness to lead the country.

So yes, I am happy this morning.

Hillary Clinton at the Convention: What's at Stake

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 147

When Hillary Clinton takes the podium this evening to address the Democratic National Convention, she faces not only the assembled delegates, not only an army of media and the scrutiny of the nation and a good part of the world. Tonight, Hillary Clinton faces a choice.

The fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton, even in defeat, is a formidable presence in the convention hall, in the U.S. Senate, and in the the Democratic party. But even more significant, in the aftermath of her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton has acquired something she never truly possessed before: her own constituency. The stories and speeches from the campaign trail of women of every age, region, background, and yes, race, investing Hillary with the mantle of their aspirations for the future political, social and economic condition of women made for good copy, yes, but was far more than just hype. It was, in a way we have never had opportunity to witness before, hope: hope for millions, as audacious any dream on offer this cycle.

And therein lays Hillary's choice tonight. Having rallied a constituency to her side, what does she do with it: lead, follow, or even step away entirely?

To lead tonight, Hillary Clinton will need to make clear, as only she can, that the Democratic Party is absolutely, without qualification or caveat, Barack Obama's to command. Hillary Clinton would need to tell her supporters, in so many words, that to support her is to support Obama, and there is no place in her train for those who claim otherwise.

To follow, Hillary would need to do merely the reverse: say that, of course, she supports Barack Obama, because he won and party duty requires her to publicly campaign for him, and then spend the bulk of her address paying tribute to the efforts of those who sought a different outcome.

Finally, Hillary Clinton could make an entirely different choice: to focus not on the campaign just past, but on the future waiting to be won or lost in the outcome of this election. That would entail, of necessity, unqualified support for Barack Obama, but something more, and something greater still: a bona fide vision of what America can become as a result of this historic campaign. In short, she would need to make the speech she planned to make to the convention had she prevailed in the primaries, shorn of "vote for me" and infused, instead, with the promise of what can be if Democrats win up and down the ballot this fall.

Admittedly, such a speech would be a tall order for any politician, and for Hillary Clinton perhaps more than most. But if she were to deliver such an address, she would awaken tomorrow to find herself to be the leader she has always aspired to become.

Joe Says Hi

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 148

From the inbox, attached to a note with the subject "Hello" and the sender line "Joe Biden":

Recycling

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 149

This is why mankind invented the Sharpie:

Yes.

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 150

Obama/Biden 2008.

I've been hoping I'd be able to type those words ever since it became clear that Barack Obama would be the Democratic nominee for president. Other words come to mind, as well:

...experience...leadership...political courage...character and integrity, and the strength of ideas...Joe Biden possesses all of these attributes, and then some. Crucially, Joe Biden also has the ability not just to articulate his proposals, but to take the fight to the Republicans and win. Need convincing? Go ask Rudy's campaign how they feel about Biden's renowned "a noun, a verb and 9/11" barb.

The 2008 presidential contest comes at a time of testing for our country, when our values, our character and our leadership are being challenged around the globe. This is a time not for big names, but for big ideas; not for poll-tested slogans, but for time-proven leadership; not for image, but for vision. Above all, this is a time for American renewal, to restore justice and humanity to the use of our power abroad, reason and civility to the conduct of our politics at home, and, most of all, peace and hope to a world that cannot achieve it without a rebirth of American leadership. This is a time for American greatness. This is the time for Joe Biden.

I was quite pleased with those words when I first published them. And I don't half mind the look of them today.

Get to Work

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 166

Hmmmm. Probably not the rallying cry you thought it would be, Senator:




However, if you want to talk about your lack of a plan to address rising unemployment, we would be all ears.