Thoughts on the Des Moines Register Democratic Debate

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 403

The Des Moines Register debate among the Democratic candidates for president has just wrapped up. Here are some thoughts on each candidate, in alphabetical order.

Joe Biden - hampered by a cold, Biden nonetheless delivered a strong performance in this debate. All the candidates recognize the importance of Iowa in the 2008 campaign process, but more than any of the others, Joe Biden was able to speak to Iowan's specific issues and concerns directly and effectively, but without overt pandering. Two examples: speaking about the contrast between his first trip to Iowa in 1974 and the present, Biden observed that there is now "so much open land and so few farmers," due to the rise of agribusiness at the expense of family farms, and he gave a terrific response on alternative energy and biofuels, giving an answer that referred to both cellulosic and corn-based ethanol and the comparative long term potential of each that will have the other candidates scrambling back to their playbooks to emulate. Look for that to pay dividends for Biden in the final sprint to January 3rd. But undoubtedly the best moment of this debate for Joe Biden, or any of the other candidates, for that matter, was his statement on civil rights, which drew applause from not only the audience, but the other candidates on the stage. Biden carried the entire hall, and the debate with it, in that moment.

Hillary Clinton: In a debate focused on issues and substance, Hillary Clinton came in with a game plan focused on selling her personal qualities to voters, rather than her policies. She strove - visibly strove - to appear relaxed, unflappable, strong, and confident in her inevitable success in this campaign. I'm not so sure this was the best strategy for this particular debate. The idea that this race is for all practical purposes over a full 3 weeks before caucus night is beginning to ware on Iowans. Clinton may have done better to engage on issues, rather than portraying herself as the One to Beat.

Chris Dodd: Dodd is always at his best when talking about the rule of law and restoring the Constitution, and today was no exception. Dodd also scored well in a gutsy pitch for a corporate carbon tax instead of a cap and trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But there wasn't a home run for Chris Dodd today, and that is what he needs absolutely every single time he goes to bat between now and January 3rd. Even then, it may already be too late for Dodd to improve his chances at a respectable showing in the caucuses, and that would be a shame for a candidate who has run a solid, ideas-based campaign.

John Edwards: Today was a missed opportunity for John Edwards. Edwards had a chance to come in to this debate and remind Iowans why it was they catapulted him to national prominence with a second place finish here four years ago. Rather than do that, however, John Edwards treaded water with answers that did little more than rerun lines from his stump speeches. Edwards didn't gain any ground today, which, with the polls showing him in a no-margin-for error dead heat with Clinton and Obama, is as much as to say that he lost ground.

Barack Obama: Today was easily Barack Obama's best debate so far. At a pivotal moment in the campaign, his statement repeating his "fierce urgency of now" case for his candidacy and his description of his plans for his first year in office showed a combination of heart and head that put Barack Obama in his best light. The trick for Obama now is that he must clearly display this combination again and again between now and caucus night to pull supporters away from the other established front runners. Obama's off-the-cuff remark about looking forward to receiving Hillary Clinton's advice when he is president was also 100% pitch perfect. It's hard to imagine Barack Obama performing any better than he did at this debate.

Bill Richardson: Amiable, unpretentious in spite of his accomplishments, and likeable, Bill Richardson nonetheless came into this debate an undeniably deflated candidate. Once showing potential to actually crack into the polling territory inhabited by Clinton, Edwards and Obama, Richardson appears to have peaked in mid summer and has been steadily losing ground ever since. Lacking energy, let alone any memorable lines, and seemingly unable to close the sale with Iowa voters, Bill Richardson did nothing to halt his slide in today's debate. You can practically hear the air seeping out of his candidacy.

Chris Matthews: Biden in Top Three for Nomination Race

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 404

On Hardball this past Monday, Chris Matthews did his regular "Power Ranking" of the Democratic candidates for president, ranking who is most likely to become the nominee next year. The big news: Joe Biden is now ranked third in the field, behind only Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, both much better financed and beneficiaries of infinitely more media coverage.

Here's what Matthews had to say:

"On the Democratic side I say, and this may surprise you, that Joe Biden is now the third best bet for the nomination. I'm hearing a lot of buzz about him from people who pay attention."

Here's the video:



This confirms what I'm hearing from other voters I talk to, as well. As voters here become more focused on making their final caucus choices, and as they get to know Joe Biden, they are seeing him not only as the candidate who is the leading voice on solving the Iraq mess, but more and more as a legitimate alternative to the established front runners. The closer we get to caucus night, the better positioned Joe Biden is to dramatically exceed expectations here in Iowa.

New Biden Ad in Iowa: "Action"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 405

Joe Biden is putting up a new ad in Iowa tomorrow. Titled, "Action," the 30-second spot features Senator Biden speaking directly to the camera about his record of leadership and results in public life.

Here's the video:



I like this ad, and I think it marks the opening of a new phase in Biden's campaign. It provides viewers with a look at a very presidential Joe Biden, and makes the case that a vote for Biden is a guesswork-free proposition: if you want to know how he'll perform as president, just take a look at what he has done, and continues to do, in his public career. And the ad comes at exactly the right moment for the campaign, when buzz is beginning to build around Biden's candidacy and people are taking serious stock of the candidates before making their final caucus decision. I think viewers will come away impressed.

Joe Biden Increases Iowa Grassroots Support

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 411

Joe Biden continued to add strength to his Iowa ground game today with the announcement of more than fifty local elected officials, veteran Democratic activists and community leaders from more than twenty Iowa counties who have joined the Biden campaign's statewide steering committee.

In a press release issued by Biden's campaign, Dubuque County Sheriff Ken Runde said, "I am endorsing Sen. Biden because over the years he’s been the Democrats’ leader in supporting law enforcement, and as a veteran myself, I believe he is best prepared to resolve the war in Iraq and is right to support our troops. Joe Biden is as down to earth as you can get and he is a fair and honest man."

"I looked over the field and talked to friends and family who had Joe Biden at the top of their list," added Paulee Lipsman, a former DNC member and veteran of many Iowa caucuses. "I have finally decided, as have many others, that Joe Biden in fact will make a great president and I want to do everything I can to help him win."

“We are honored that these Iowans pledged to support Sen. Biden. This group of community leaders reveals the grassroots energy behind Sen. Biden that’s spreading across Iowa. We look forward to their help in building toward a successful caucus day.” said Biden for President Political Director Danny O’Brien.

The full list of individuals who endorsed Joe Biden for President today includes:
- Paulee Lipsman, Former Member of the Democratic National Committee, Polk County
- Ken Runde, Dubuque County Sheriff
- Grant Veeder, Black Hawk County Auditor
- Chuck Larson, Fremont County Supervisor
- Craig White, Black Hawk County Supervisor
- Marty Larsen, Sheriff of Chickasaw County
- Bob Elliott, Democratic Activist, Johnson County
- Les Aasheim, Mayor of Clive, Polk County
- Sharon Aasheim, Democratic Activist, Polk County
- Ann Michalski, Dubuque City Councilwoman, Dubuque County
- Susan Dunek, Keokuk City Councilwoman, Lee County
- Lou Galetich, Norwalk School Board Member, Boone County
- George Meinecke, Norwalk School Board Member, Warren County
- Jill Morrill, Johnston School Board Member, Polk County
- Margaret Moore, Walker Councilwoman, Linn County
- Everett Moore, Former Walker Mayor, Linn County
- Don Schultz, Former State Representative, Black Hawk County
- Gene Blanshan, Former State Representative, Guthrie County
- Chuck Taylor, Fayette County Democratic Party Chair
- Jamie Hogan, Adams County Democratic Party Chair
- Don Wills, Vice Chair of the Greene County Democratic Central Committee
- Jim Carnahan, Former Polk County Democratic Chair
- Steve Hodge, Former School Board Member, Former Polk County Democratic Party Chair, Dubuque County
- Doug Jones, Vice Chair of the Decatur County Democratic Central Committee
- Diane Bolte, Clinton County Democratic Secretary
- Matt Porter, President of CWA Local 7108, Black Hawk County
- Laurie Soroka, Vice President of CWA Local 7102, Polk County
- Nick Powers, UAW Local 838 Member, Black Hawk County
- Don Krause, Des Moines, Polk County
- Linda Krause, Des Moines, Polk County
- Pat Johnson, Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Union, Retired, Clinton County
- Tom Avenarius, Dubuque Candidate for State Representative, UAW Retiree and Vietnam Veteran
- Steve Wandro, Attorney and Democratic Activist, Polk County
- Sara Riley, Local Attorney, Linn County
- Nate Boulton, Labor Lawyer and Democratic Activist, Polk County
- U.J. Booth, Local Attorney, Community Activist and Veteran, Clarke County
- Linda Booth, Community Activist, Clarke County
- Carlton Blackburn, President of Connections, Johnson County
- Arleon Kelley, Methodist Minister, Fayette County
- Doug Burks, Chief Pharmacist Winneshiek Medical Center, Winneshiek County
- Sue Burks, Pharmacist and Small Business Owner, Winneshiek County
- Debbie Hillman, Shenandoah Hospital Nurse, Page County
- Steven Schmit, Ed. D., Director of the Division of Postdoctoral Training for the American Osteopathic Association, Black Hawk County
- Anita Quirk, Educator, Chickasaw County
- Marylyn Bruce, Democratic Activist, Polk County
- Cheri Canier, Democratic Activist, Clinton County
- Mike Finnegan, Democratic Activist, Clermont, Fayette County
- Cathy Hermes, Democratic Activist, Davenport, Scott County
- Mary Kennedy, Democratic Activist, Polk County
- JoAnn McKibben, Cumming, Warren County
- Barry McKibben, Cumming, Warren County
- Gabriel Russo, St. Charles, Madison
- Patty Russo, St. Charles, Madison

Biden on Hardball

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 411

Senator Joe Biden was on Hardball last night, talking with host Chris Matthews about the latest National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program.

In his conversation with Matthews, Joe Biden again pointed out the recklessness of the Bush Administration's policy regarding Iran, and the damage it continues to inflict on America's ability to lead around the world.

A link to the video is below. The clip runs about seven minutes, but is well worth viewing.


Biden responds to Bush, NIE

Thoughts on the NPR Debate

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 412

The NPR debate just wrapped up in Des Moines. Here are some thoughts about the candidates' performance, in alphabetical order.

Joe Biden - Another strong debate performance from Biden today. On all of the three spotlight topics of the debate, Biden spoke forthrightly on not just the details of the issues of Iran, China and immigration, but the specific policy measures he would put in place to address those issues. I thought Biden's point about immigrants learning English - that there hasn't been an immigration wave in our history that has not embraced English as a primary language in its second generation - was a particular highlight. But the home run of the day came in this exchange with Hillary Clinton on Iran and Clinton's vote in favor of the Kyl-Lieberman resolution:

Clinton: "None of us is advocating a rush to war."
Biden: "Terminology matters.It's not about not advocating a rush to war. I'm advocating no war."

I think Biden won the debate in that moment.

Hillary Clinton - for the most part, Hillary Clinton came across well enough to prevent negative press, but I didn't find her performance to be as compelling as in previous debates. It may have been the radio format, but in her answers at this debate, Hillary Clinton sounded like a candidate who's trying hard not to lose, rather than one who is "in it to win it." Senator Clinton is rarely tentative in her debate performances, nor was she today; but increasingly, I get the impression that there's a filter between her beliefs and her words that conveys the impression that she's being more and more careful on the stump. Clinton is in a a real fight to win here in Iowa, and obviously isn't crazy about it.

Chris Dodd - Dodd had some good moments today, particularly on the issue of China and trade. The spin email from the Dodd campaign summarized his performance on this topic pretty fairly:

Sen. Dodd, who called for an immediate suspension of food, toys and pet food imported from China over the summer after safety concerns were cited, characterized the United States’ trade relationship with China as ‘adversarial.’ “When you manipulate your currency as they (China) do; when you’re in violation of the World Trade Organization; when you employ slave labor in the production of your manufactured goods; when you deny access on your shelves to the products and services we produce, it is not a competition, it’s adversarial. We need to stand up and say: “This is a market you want to be in. If you want to be here, then you’re going to have to play like an adult.”

On the other hand, Dodd also pledged to put only toys made in Iowa under the tree this Christmas. I can hear his two daughters crying about that from here.

John Edwards - While the tone of today's debate was more relaxed that the last TV debate, John Edwards still got in some smacks at Hillary Clinton which I'm sure pleased his supporters. The release of yesterday's National Intelligence Estimate downgrading the urgency of any nuclear weapons threat from Iran poses additional problems for Senator Clinton in defending her Kyl-Lieberman vote, and John Edwards worked hard to exploit that. Clinton has characterized her vote as one in favor of diplomacy with Iran, a point with which John Edwards took issue today:

"Declaring a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization, that's supposed to be diplomacy?" Edwards said at one point. "This has to be considered in the context that Senator Clinton has said she agrees with George Bush terminology that we're in a global war on terror, then she voted to declare a military group in Iran a terrorist organization. What possible conclusion can you reach other than we are at war?"

Edwards did rather poorly, however, in struggling to respond to a question about the specific actions he would take to extend basic rights to undocumented workers as an interim measure while enacting comprehensive immigration reform.

Mike Gravel - Here's to maybe the last chance we'll have to listen to Mike Gravel grumble nonsense to power.

Dennis Kucinich - Nothing new from Dennis4President today. There was an odd moment at the end of the debate when he seemed to be saying he hadn't made up his mind about the standards of conduct to which the president and vice president should be held, and whether Bush and Cheney should be impeached. As someone who has introduced articles of impeachment in the House of Representatives against Vice President Cheney, you would think Kucinich would have reached closure on this issue. Quite strange, but there again, nothing new.

Barack Obama - Obama seemed to disappear for long stretches of today's debate. When he did speak, he avoided making any problems for himself, but the audio-only format didn't do any favors for Senator Obama's often deliberate and low-key Q&A style.

Today's radio debate almost makes me wish television had never been invented. It is so much more productive to get candidates together in a setting like today's at the Iowa Historical Museum and speak over radio than it is to put everybody on camera. Doing debates via radio is infinitely cheaper than putting on a televised debate; anybody who has covered any of the TV debates this cycle, as I did at Drake University back in August, can attest to what a mammoth undertaking those are, with all the production expense that entails. Because television is so much more expensive than radio, the urgency is to cover as many topics as possible in the space of two hours, with the result that all substance is lost and there is only time for sound bites.

Radio, with its much lower production costs, would enable a number of debates similar to today's, focused on a few specific topics, with the result of a much more substantive discussion.

Ain't gonna happen, though. Bummer.

Here's a link to a transcript from CQ Transcriptions, via the New York Times.

Biden: "I Will Eat Rudy Giuliani Alive at a Debate "

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 413

Another rocket from Biden to the Giuliani camp today demonstrates again how Joe Biden knows how to keep his eye on the ball. This is the kind of fire we need to bring to the general election campaign in order to win: hard, fast, and aimed in the right targets.

"I can't wait to debate Rudy Giuliani.

Over the weekend, Rudy Giuliani attacked the Biden plan for a political solution in Iraq, "They're saying, 'We will divide the country.' (The Iraqi government) has to decide to divide the country. We're trying to create stability over there."

The former mayor never misses an opportunity to display how little he knows about foreign policy. My plan is to give regions in Iraq more control over their daily lives. It's a way for states to share power with a central government and achieve a political solution to the chaos there and it was endorsed by a bipartisan majority of 75 Senators, both Republican and Democrat. We've already seen it play out -- where local authorities have been given more control over their affairs, violence has gone down. Meanwhile, the Bush administration's attempt to create a strong central government is still not working -- for all the headlines the surge has created, we're no closer to a political solution in Baghdad than we were when the surge began months ago.

Folks, we've seen how dangerous it is to elect a president who doesn't understand how the world works. The last thing we need in the White House is four years of George W. Giuliani, or George W. Romney. Notice we haven't heard a word about their plans to reach a political solution in Iraq.

I promise you, when I am the Democratic nominee next year, I will eat them alive at the debates."

"George W. Giuliani or George W. Romney." Ouch!

Joe Biden for President

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 413

One month from today, when I go to my precinct caucus, I will be casting my vote for Joe Biden.

Back in May of this year, I wrote a post which was somewhat tongue-in-cheek at the time, but which I revisit now in earnest:

Since starting this blog this past January, I’ve had the opportunity to meet, or at least shake hands with, every candidate in the Democratic field who has made a visit to Iowa. I’ve heard their ideas, or at least their rhetoric. I’ve had a chance to see how they perform in front of crowds large and small. I’m as star-struck by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as moved by the personal story of John Edwards, as impressed by the résumé of Bill Richardson, and appreciative of the Senate careers of Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, as anybody. I’ve heard the policy speeches on Iraq and health care, climate change and energy. I’ve been on the conference calls with the candidates, and heard them make the case about why they are uniquely qualified to lead the United States at this critical moment in history. I’ve watched the debates. I’ve sized them up, weighed the pros and cons, scrutinized their records. I’ve looked them in the eye, and taken the temperature of the fire in their bellies.

I now have to face the question of whether the time has come to declare support for one candidate above the others.

I’m happy to say this is not an easy choice to make. The Democratic roster this cycle is arguably the most impressive ever fielded by the party. Any one of the candidates I mention above could legitimately serve as president, and would do a better job of it than any Republican candidate this cycle, and, I need hardly say, the current incumbent. And, to an unusual degree, they all will have a future in national politics and running for the White House again after the 2008 election is over.

Those words remain true to this day. Democrats have an oustanding field of candidates to choose from in this campaign and choosing among them has taken far longer than I had anticipated. But over the last month, the case to be made in favor of Joe Biden above the others has become increasingly compelling. To continue quoting from the earlier post:

In my view, however, one stands above the rest on experience, on leadership, on political courage, on character and integrity, and the strength of the ideas they have brought to this campaign.

Joe Biden possesses all of these attributes, and then some. For nearly two years, and for far longer than he has been running for president, Joe Biden has distinguished himself as the voice that matters on Iraq; on delivering real homeland security without sacrificing our civil liberties on the alter of fear; on energy and climate change, healthcare, education, crime, jobs, reproductive freedom and workplace equality for women, ending the genocide in Darfur, and most recently, the upheaval in Pakistan, Joe Biden shows again and again that when it comes to bold ideas, policy proposals that are not only specific, but workable, and proven leadership, he towers above the other candidates like a colossus.

Crucially, Joe Biden also has the ability not just to articulate his proposals, but to take the fight to the Republicans and win. For all the back and forth there's been about which of the Democratic candidates would be the most electable next November, no one else has shown the agility and just plain muscle of Joe Biden in bringing heat to the Republicans. Need convincing? Go ask Rudy's campaign how they feel about Biden's renowned "a noun, a verb and 9/11" barb.

The 2008 presidential contest comes at a time of testing for our country, when our values, our character and our leadership are being challenged around the globe. This is a time not for big names, but for big ideas; not for poll-tested slogans, but for time-proven leadership; not for image, but for vision. Above all, this is a time for American renewal, to restore justice and humanity to the use of our power abroad, reason and civility to the conduct of our politics at home, and, most of all, peace and hope to a world that cannot achieve it without a rebirth of American leadership. This is a time for American greatness. This is the time for Joe Biden.

Hmmm. Good Point.

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 416

The Quote of the Day today comes from Joe Biden, responding to a voter's question at a forum on Iraq in Portsmouth, New Hampshire:

"I know a lot of my opponents out there say I'd be a great secretary of state. Seriously, every one of them. Do you watch any of the debates? 'Joe's right, Joe's right, Joe's right.'

"I ask you a rhetorical question: Are you prepared to vote for anyone - at this moment in our history - as president who is not capable of being secretary of state? Who among my opponents would you consider appointing secretary of state? Seriously. Think about it."

New ARG Iowa Poll: Richardson Dropping Like a Stone

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 416

American Research Group is out with a new Iowa poll this morning that vividly illustrates how fluid the Democratic nomination race in Iowa is now that we're heading into the home stretch.

Of particular interest are the numbers for Bill Richardson. In the previous ARG Iowa survey, conducted November 10-14, Richardson was at 12%; in this latest poll, conducted between November 26-29, Richardson now has the support of just 4% of "Likely Democratic Caucus Goers." No, this is not a typo: Richardson's actual poll result is 4%. If accurate, this poll shows a dramatic collapse of Richardson's backing, with two out of three of the New Mexico Governor's supporters deserting him for other candidates.

Predictably, much of Richardson's lost support has accreted to the top tier, judging by the fact that Obama's support jumped 6 points and Edwards increased by 3 points. But the other surprise in these numbers is Joe Biden increasing from 5% to 8%, his first significant move in months. This is what every candidate prays for going into the climactic phase of the campaign in Iowa: a late surge. If Biden can hold these gains, and then build his numbers into double digits, he stands a serious chance of dramatically exceeding expectations on caucus night.

Overall results:

Nov 10-14 Nov 26-29
Biden 5% 8%
Clinton 27% 25%
Dodd 3% 3%
Edwards 20% 23%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 2% 2%
Obama 21% 27%
Richardson 12% 4%
Undecided 10% 8%

Other highlights:

* 33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
* 80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
* 57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
* 75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
* Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
* Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.

The soft support number shown for John Edwards is further bad news for his campaign, with 43% of his supporters indicating that they may still end up supporting someone else; this is worrying news for Edwards, even with the 3% gain noted above. Look for John Edwards to continue to weaken over the next few weeks.

Some facts about the poll's methodology:

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (536 Democrats and 64 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: November 26-29, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Incidence of Likely Democratic Caucus Participation: 10.5% of Democratic and no party voters.

Question Wording:

If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?