Dodd Campaign's Statement on the Michigan Primary

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 468

Chris Dodd, profile in courage, has had his communications director Hari Sevugan issue the following statement regarding the Michigan primary:

We are committed to the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire going first, and we signed the four-state pledge to hopefully prevail upon the DNC and the state parties to add clarity to that situation. However, it does not benefit any of us if we are the nominee to pull our name off the ballot and slight Michigan voters.

Compare this with the statement Dodd himself made on August 31, 2007:

“I believe that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada offer a cross-section of America and allow for voters to probe the experience and vision of candidates in a meaningful way,” said Dodd. “In this year, where the national media focus seems to be on celebrity and bank accounts, the role of these states is more important than ever. I am committed to the DNC nominating calendar and preserving the first-in-the-nation status of Iowa and New Hampshire.”

Make of that what you will.

Parse This

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 468

Two additional bits on Michigan and the pledge. First, the obvious:

Pledge [plej]–noun
1. a solemn promise or agreement to do or refrain from doing something

And secondly, for those who might not remember - Senators Clinton and Dodd, for starters - here is the text of the Four State Pledge:

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I, [insert name here], Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.

Pledge, Schmedge

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 468

All aflutter is the Iowa blogosphere at today's developments regarding the Michigan primary on January 15. I'm not too exorcised about it either way, except...you guys signed a pledge, didn't you? Like, in front of God - or at least the New York Times - and everybody.

And I know the Dodd and Clinton campaigns are already spinning like mad on this, but it doesn't address the question: you guys signed a pledge, didn't you? And it really doesn't cut any ice with me to have either of these candidates assure us all that although they may have decided to remain on the ballot, they won't be actively campaigning in Michigan. For Hillary Clinton, at least, this is bound to invite unflattering recollections of non-denial denials from the White House years. And for Chris Dodd: what are you thinking? Being the anti-Hillary in Michigan isn't going to help you much in Iowa...or New Hampshire...or South Carolina...or Nevada.

Pledge, schmedge. If you're staying on the ballot in Michigan, you might as well campaign there. And do the same in Florida, while you're at it. Staying on the ballot and not campaigning is a distinction without a difference.

You guys publicly signed a pledge. And violated it. Spin and wink at it all you want, but there are now a lot of reasons to wonder what your word will be worth on anything. Iraq, health care, Habeus Corpus, education - if the circumstances are right, and you sense it might be worth the gamble, what person in their right mind would rely on you to stand by a commitment after this?

"Yeah, It's That Important"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 491

Just a quick note to say I was at the 30th Annual Tom Harkin Steak Fry today. What can I say, but that the folks in Indianola really know how to grill up a steak.

I'll be putting up posts about the goings on over the next day or two; not play-by-play stuff (check out Iowa Independent for Chase and John's coverage), but more like color commentary.

So, was there red meat from the podium? Did the air go out of anyone's balloon today? Did the candidates serve it up bloody or well done? And did anyone figure out what drew all those flies to the press file shed? Check back tomorrow for the answers to those questions and more!

It's All Local

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 543

Its been said that all politics are local. Judging by this clip up on the Washington Post's website today, this is particularly true if you eat at the diner down the street from my house.

Town Hall Envy

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 585

It no doubt sounded good at the beginning: "We'll move our state's primary up closer to January, and we'll have the same influence in picking a nominee as Iowa and New Hampshire. Candidates will spend time here, meet voters here, and will have to pay attention to our issues, just like they do in Iowa and New Hampshire. Yeah, that's the ticket!"

However, with the bandwagon creaking under the load of so many states moving their primaries ever earlier in the calendar, the flaws in this line of thinking are making themselves increasingly plain. The unintended consequence of all this year's political leapfrogging is that as more states move up their primaries the traditional campaign dynamics that were originally meant to be overthrown are becoming only more entrenched.

The definitive case in point: California. According to an article in today's Los Angeles Times, rather than producing a string of meet and greet town hall-style events, or resulting in candidates spending oodles more time out west, the change in California's primary date has turned out to reinforce the importance of media, rather than personal appearances by candidates at town halls or even large rallies, in reaching voters. Campaigning via television and radio has increased, not decreased. And the main thing that candidates are looking for in the Golden State? It isn't face time with voters - it's campaign cash to spend other places...like financing their ground games in (surprise!) Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Washington Post sums it up rather well:

"Most political observers believe that the newly frontloaded campaign schedule will primarily benefit front-runners who are able to collect the huge sums of cash needed to finance massive television ad campaigns spanning the three weeks between the Iowa caucuses and the large cluster of primaries on Feb. 5. There will also be pressure on candidates to operate costly and exhausting bi-coastal campaigns, to try to simultaneously drive up their numbers in the Northeast and Midwest and in the far West and Southwest.

"The counter-argument to the idea that the new calendar has created a de facto national primary is that with so many expensive states crowded into late January and early February the only possible way for a candidate to reach potential voters is through the blitz of media coverage that traditionally follows a win or stronger than expected showing in Iowa or New Hampshire."

Much has been written about the flaws of having Iowa and New Hampshire exert the influence they do on who becomes president, and many of the arguments for changing the primary system to lessen the influence of these two states have merit. But, as we're beginning to see, changing the political landscape will take more than states acting separately to promote their own clout - and this includes Iowa and New Hampshire - at the expense of others. What is required is a rational, fair, and cooperative approach that balances the competing interests of individual states with the common interests of all. A compromise, in other words. This is politics, after all.

Cattle Call at the Pork Dinner

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 640

I'm gearing up to eat massive amounts of Iowa pork and watch a parade of candidates speak at the annual Polk County Democrats Spring Dinner tonight.

Confirmed candidates:

• John Edwards: it will be interesting to see the contrast between his performance delivering a rostrum speech versus the town hall event I attended a couple of weeks ago.
  
• Bill Richardson: haven't met him yet, so I'm looking forward to checking off this last box on the candidate roll call.
  
• Joe Biden: hasn't gotten much traction since I attended his foreign policy town hall last month. His Iraq plan is the best one out there, but he's stuck in neutral. We'll see if he can shake things up tonight.
  
  The surrogates:
  
• Dodd campaign: former Congressman Rick Nolen (Minnesota 6th Congressional District). Disappointed that Dodd won't be there himself, as he's on a policy speech jag at the moment (last week foreign policy, this week energy), and it would have been interesting to hear him in person about whatever's next on the agenda. But, having met him just last week, I can let this one slide, I suppose (me: spoiled. rotten.).
  
• Clinton campaign: Christie Vilsack. Hillary will be doing a GOTCB (Get Out The Checkbook) event for Congressman Leonard Boswell (IA-03) tomorrow, so has appearantly decided to pick her spots and give tonight's event a miss. As an aside, I got a robocall from Hillary last night asking if I would be attending the Boswell fundraiser ("press 1 for yes, press 2 if you'll be unable to attend."). Upon pressing 2 to decline, the next question was, "Will you be caucusing for me next January? Press 1 for yes, press 2 if you'd like more information." That one cracked me up; "No" wasn't even an option. (NOTE: I'm not saying I would've selected "no" if it had been available. It's still only April, and I'm still undecided. Funny, though!)
  
• Obama Campaign: five-term Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, from the 9th CD in Barack's home state of Illinois (pronunced "Ella-NOIZ" some places hereabouts). Schakowsky is on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and says her top priority is healthcare, so I'll say it's a safe bet she won't be gunning for Dodd or Biden tonight. And am I reading too much into the Obama campaign sending a woman to match up against Christie Vilsack's speaking for Hillary? Maybe. Maybe not.




Anyhow, should be a hot time at the fairgrounds tonight. I'll post a full account over the weekend.

The Obama-Clinton Iowa Tractor Pull

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 647

From the inbox today, a pretty amusing episode of dueling emails between the Obama and Clinton campaigns on who owns Iowa at this point in the cycle.

First up was the Obama campaign's email on what they've been up to in Iowa, complete with stats:

"Obama in Iowa - By the Numbers

Since announcing his candidacy two months ago, Senator Obama has visited Iowa on five different occasions, making stops in 20 different counties, including many smaller communities like Ida Grove and Colo.

Demonstrating his commitment to the hallowed Iowa tradition of retail politics, Senator Obama has hosted 25 smaller gatherings where he was able to hear directly from Iowans about the issues affecting their lives. From riding on buses with teachers to hearing from veterans in Marshalltown and Mason City, Senator Obama has shown a willingness to listen.

Including the 17 other events Senator Obama has hosted in Iowa, he has now answered more than 200 questions from average Americans who attended an Obama campaign event in Iowa.

The combined attendance at campaign events hosted by Senator Obama, according to media reports and our in-house counts, is more than 30,900. And we keep hearing from people that the crowds he’s attracting are young, diverse, and bipartisan. In fact, of those who signed in at events, an astonishing 23 percent are registered Independents and 10 percent are registered Republicans.

During his Iowa visits, Senator Obama has worked hard to give access to Iowa journalists covering our campaign by granting 39 interviews or media availabilities with Iowa-based reporters.

Finally, to capitalize on the enormous interest in our campaign, we have already opened 12 campaign offices across Iowa.

With 276 days until the Iowa Caucuses, we know we have much more work to do, but these early measurements show our commitment to running an inclusive campaign that shows proper respect to Iowans and the caucus process. In addition, these numbers are an indication of the enormous interest in Senator Obama and his vision for the future of our country. It’s our job to build an organization that will turn that interest and energy into votes on caucus night.

Most importantly, this milestone gives us yet another chance to say thanks to the thousands of Iowans who have volunteered, attended an event, or voiced an opinion.

In the weeks and months ahead, we’ll send regular email updates to keep you apprised of our progress here in Iowa. Senator Obama takes very seriously the important role that Iowans will play in choosing the next president of the United States, and we’re working hard to build the kind of foundation we need to earn your support."

Not to be outdone, the Clinton campaign responded - and I think that's the very word: responded - with their own Hawkeye State Travelogue about 2 hours later:

"A giant sign hung on a fertilizer spreader on the side of a long gravel road. A field of cars lined up across the horizon. From the very beginning of Hillary's Four Corners of Iowa tour, it was clear that Iowans want a strong, smart, and experienced leader.

It was a picture-perfect day in Fort Madison where Hillary's tour began in the southeastern part of the state last week. State Senator Eugene Fraise, his wife Faye, and their family opened up their farm -- and kitchen -- to Hillary and hundreds of guests.

You could see the enthusiasm in their faces. It could not have been more clear -- Iowans are ready to support a candidate with the experience take command now and the vision to change the direction of our country.

From Fort Madison to Waterloo, audiences were deeply impressed and motivated to help Hillary win next January. In Burlington, hundreds of Iowans joined Hillary for a conversation on the challenges America faces today.

The next morning, Governor Tom Vilsack and his wife Christie hosted Hillary and area supporters at their home in Mount Pleasant for coffee and cinnamon rolls.

Hillary then toured the Riksch Biofuels Plant in Crawfordsville, discussing her plan to bring new jobs to rural America. She rounded out her trip by joining hundreds of supporters in Iowa City and Waterloo.

Iowans from all over the state have had a chance to discuss with Hillary the solutions to the challenges America faces today. In many cases it has been you who have already taken action to help solve these problems.

We saw it at the biofuels plant Hillary toured last week. Neil and Darin Rich and Don Miksch are the three founders of Riksch Biofuels, a company that not only reduces our dependence on foreign oil and protects the environment, but creates well paying jobs in rural Iowa.

Neil and Darin started the company in 2004 in an effort to help subsidize their fuel usage on their family farm. The two then worked with Don to create a full-fledged business plan that has truly become a family effort -- relatives old and young stopped by the plant the day of Hillary's visit. At 27, 25, and 21, they are three of the youngest biodiesel executives in the country.

The Rich and Miksch families share the same drive, determination, and innovation that many that Iowans have -- it is why today Iowa is a leader in renewable energy.

As President, Hillary will restore America's reputation and leadership in innovation around the world. Hillary is a battle-tested candidate with the strongest track record and the most experience.

Over the coming weeks, Hillary will continue her Four Corners of Iowa tour, talking and listening to Iowans about her vision for the country. We will let you know when Hillary comes to your area.

We'll see you on the campaign trail."

I can hardly wait for the next round of emails, featuring photos of the candidates hugging tornados and kissing cornstalks!

Why They Come to Iowa

Days Unit Bush Leaves Office = 653


Iowa is tiny, in terms of both geography and population, it is less diverse than the country as a whole, it is far less urban than the country as a whole, and generally is so dull and unimportant that one of the top priorities of the governor and legislature this term is to figure out how to keep native Iowan sons and daughters from fleeing the state before the ink is even dry on their diplomas.

Which leads to the entirely fair and reasonable question asked around the country about why it is that such a tiny place, along with equally small and nationally non-representative New Hampshire, should hold such outsized clout in the presidential nominating process. Why would candidates and the national press even brother with places like these when culturally, financially, demographically and in almost every other respect, the coasts dominate the terms of discussion in this country?

From today's New York Times, recounting an encounter at an Obama event earlier this week at the V.F.W. Hall in Dakota City, here's your answer:

"Mr. Obama was approached by a woman, her eyes wet. She spoke into his ear and began to weep, collapsing into his embrace. They stood like that for a full minute, Mr. Obama looking ashen, before she pulled away. She began crying again, Mr. Obama pulled her in for another embrace.

The woman left declining to give her name or recount their conversation. Mr. Obama said she told him what had happened to her 20-year-old son, who was serving in Iraq.

“Her son died,” he said. He paused. “What can you say? This happens to me every single place I go.”

The next day, at the rally here, Mr. Obama described the encounter for the crowd. The woman, he said, had asked if her son’s death was the result of a mistake by the government. “And I told her the service of our young men and women — the duty they show this country — that’s never a mistake,” he said.

He paused carefully as he reflected on that encounter. “It reminds you why you get into politics,” he said. “It reminds you that this isn’t a game.”"

That's why.

Polk County Democrats Off-Year Caucus

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 669

As promised, I attended the Polk County Democratic Off-year Caucus last night. For the uninitiated, or anyone from outside Iowa, wondering what caucus night is like, it was like…well, a meeting: lectern, card tables and folding chairs, resolutions, tangents. But there were home-baked brownies and cookies by the plateful, so who’s to complain?

These events are organized by the county party central committee to set the platform and deal with any outstanding party business, originating either within the leadership, or the rank-and-file. This meeting differed from the presidential nominating caucuses scheduled for next January in that it encompassed the entire county, whereas the nominating caucuses are held at the precinct level. Last night was really about two bits of business. The first was a platform resolution drafted by Iowans for Sensible Priorities in favor of cancelling $60 billion in annual military spending on obsolete cold war-era weapons systems and putting that money toward urgent domestic priorities. I thought this was an intriguing proposal, provided the $60 billion really is for stuff we don’t need anymore, so I asked what specifically would be cut. A representative of Iowans for Sensible Priorities had a detailed answer (complete with brochure!), so I ended up adding my voice to the “yeas”; the resolution passed unanimously.

The second item of business, and by far the more entertaining, was to hear from representatives of some of the presidential campaigns. These were not the actual candidates, mind you, but it was interesting in its own way to hear from the campaigns, vis-à-vis the candidates themselves. Some campaigns were represented by just one person, others brought their entire county staff, and the campaigns of Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel didn’t send anyone (possibly because there was no one to send?).

First up was Amanda from the Clinton campaign. Amanda said that she had been working for Tom Vilsack until his withdrawal from the race, but found it easy to join the Clinton campaign (message: Hillary’s campaign is still trolling for Vilsack supporters) because of Hillary’s support for ending the war, addressing the health care issue, cutting the deficit (BTW: this is the first mention I’ve heard of that issue from anybody’s campaign), and developing energy independence. Amanda touted Hillary’s experience in dealing with issues, and her status as the first viable woman candidate for president.

Next was Pat Maloney from the Edwards campaign. Pat referred to this campaign being Edwards’ second, and listed the things that had happened between the 2004 and 2008 campaigns: Katrina, the worsening situation in Iraq, the continuing crises in healthcare. He urged the caucus to look at the specific proposals of each candidate when considering whom to support (a smack at Obama, I think). He concluded by saying we’re all on the same side once a nominee is chosen, which was odd in the circumstances, since that’s the sort of thing that’s usually said at the end of a campaign, rather than the beginning.

Third was Ronny Chow from the Obama campaign. Ronny characterized the 2008 campaign as being about the future, and Obama represents a “New America” of change, progress and ideas. He went on to say that money alone won’t elect a Democrat in 2008 (obvious swipe at Hillary), that grassroots activism would also be needed. He then praised the strength of the Democrat field of candidates in contrast to the Republicans, and concluded by introducing the rest of the Obama Polk County team and promoting the March 31 house parties the campaign is organizing statewide.

Fourth came former Congressman Rick Nolen (Minnesota 6th Congressional District), speaking on behalf of the Dodd campaign. Nolen said he knew all the candidates, and like Dodd best, and believed that voters would come to like Dodd best as well the more they got to know about him. He stressed that Iowa has never been more important in the nominating process, since momentum coming out of the caucuses will be crucial in being able to viably campaign in all the other states rushing to move up their own nominating contests to early February. He asserted that “experience really matters” in evaluating a presidential candidate, and listed Dodd’s work in the Peace Corp, fluency in Spanish, National Guard service, terms in the House and Senate and sponsorship of the Family and Medical Leave Act and support for Head Start as things to like about Dodd. Nolen described Dodd’s priorities as Labor, education, the environment, fire fighters, voting rights protection - but oddly, not the restoration of Habeas Corpus, one of Dodd’s signature initiatives and something that I think really sets him apart from the other candidates. He concluded by saying Chris Dodd believes in the positive role that government can play in solving problems in healthcare, climate change, farm policy (what state are we in, again?) and Iraq.

Next was Brad Frevert from the Richardson campaign. Brad humorously recalled Richardson’s initial campaign swing through the state earlier this month and the coinciding ice storm (emphasizing Richardson’s commitment to Iowa and the importance he attaches to his campaign here), and touted Richardson’s experience and resume as Energy Secretary, U.N. Ambassador, Congressman and Governor. Brad said that since 1961, 40 Senators had run for president, and none of them have won, whereas numerous governors had run and been elected president. He talked about Richardson’s record as governor in raising teacher pay and creating more than 84, 000 high-tech job in New Mexico, which, he noted, was a “red state” that reelected Richardson governor with 69% of the vote. He mentioned that the campaign is opening its state headquarters on Monday, and they anticipate a solid fundraising quarter.

Last, but not least, was Valerie Biden-Owens, sister of Joe Biden, speaking on his behalf. This is a big deal, because she is not just a relative of the candidate, or a campaign staffer, but the national chairperson of the Biden campaign, and her presence spoke volumes about the importance Biden places on Iowa. She began by thanking Iowa for its “good stewardship” of its role in the nominating process, and borrowed a line from the Obama campaign about this election being “not about the candidates but about you.” She spoke about Joe Biden’s sponsorship of the Violence Against Women Act and the Biden Crime Bill, and went on to say that his campaign is “not [just] about what he’s done, but about who he is.” She described Biden as someone who is tough, principled, understands what it takes to get things done, understands what it takes to hold on to the promise of youth, and understands what it takes to make children safe and smart. She recounted some of the episodes of personal adversity Biden has faced in the past, and characterized him as having the “heart of a champion,” being a straight shooter, a man of his word, with the ability to bring the country back together. She concluded by describing Biden as a candidate who understands possibilities as well as problems, and who listens as well as speaks.

Nothing earth-shaking in any of this, of course – perfunctory introductory remarks by campaign representatives to an audience of party activists. But it provided an interesting chance to meet and chat with some of the people who are going to be important players in the ground war that must be won in order to carry through to victory here next January. We’ll be hearing more about these folks in the coming months, I’m sure.

As an aside, a revealing thing from several of the evening’s speakers was the tendency to mistakenly say that their candidate was running for congress, or governor, or senator, rather than for president: “candidate X has what it takes to be a great [congressman, governor, etc] because…” Clearly, the magnitude of what they’ve taken on is still sinking in for some of the staffers. Can’t say I would feel any different, if I were in their shoes!

One final note, for anyone planning on attending the Polk County Democrats Spring Dinner on April 20: Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have all confirmed they will be there; Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have definitely declined, and John Edwards hasn’t yet decided either way. No word from Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel, if that’s swaying anyone’s decision on whether or not to attend!

PS/ apologies to anyone whose name I got wrong or misspelled in this post; if I mangled your name, please send me a note and I’ll publish corrections ASAP.

Quote of the Day

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 677

Let it not be said that this blog disdains bi-partisanship. The following quote comes from George Will, no less, in today's Washington Post:

"It is, of course, a commandment graven on the heart of humanity by the finger of the Almighty that Iowa's caucuses shall come first and then New Hampshire shall have its say."

Damn skippy.

Odds and Ends

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 693

Lots of different thoughts flying around the Iowa corner of the blogosphere since the state’s former Governor announced last Friday that he was dropping his bid for the White House. The blog entries run the gamut from entirely practical, “So You Worked For Tom Vilsack, What Do You Do Now?” at Iowa Progress, to the just-short-of-silly “Senator Vilsack?” at Century of the Common Iowan. But, almost inevitably, discussion since the weekend has gravitated to the horserace after Vilsack: who’s candidacy does Vilsack’s withdrawal benefit?; who’s does it hurt?

I won’t claim any particular insight here, except to observe that in the latest poll I’ve seen on the Democratic race in Iowa, Tom Vilsack pulled 14%, putting him in 4th place behind Edwards, Clinton and Obama. That strikes me as 14% of likely caucus-goers who are suddenly entirely up for grabs. Some have speculated that the bulk of that number will swing to one candidate or another; as in almost everything else, Hillary Clinton’s name gets mentioned a lot in this respect. But I’m inclined to the view that Vilsack’s support will fragment, and will likely benefit the second tier of candidates most, if for no other reason than the campaigns of Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson have nowhere to go but up.

But most heartening to me is this observation from Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray of the Washington Post that the biggest beneficiary of Vilsack’s departure is…Iowa, actually. They argue that with an Iowan Native Son out of the running, none of the other candidates have any thing left to scare them out of trying to compete in Iowa. I hope that turns out to be true, because it means more candidates here more often, meeting more voters, and hearing more of what’s on the minds of the people who’s support they’re asking for. And that can’t be a bad thing.

Lastly, and unrelated to any of this, Barack Obama’s campaign is conducting an organizing event in Grinnell next Monday, March 5th. Anyone who’s interested can learn more here.

Think Piece, Vol. I

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 720

Psychologist Neal Miller formulated a theory of conflict that sought to explain the relationship between motivation and choice. What it boils down to is that you want to attain certain ends and avoid others, and your decisions are calibrated by the nature and degree of conflict between what you want and what you do not want. Since most decisions are not between pure benefit and pure detriment, but a mixture of the two, and influenced by a galaxy of factors, decisions are usually trade-offs in which you accept the likelihood of both beneficial and detrimental consequences arising from whatever choice you make.

In other words, conflicts in decision-making rarely achieve final resolution, and we live on the fulcrum of the see-saw, trying to ride both sides at once. Welcome, readers, to the much-coveted sweet spot of the campaign strategist: the world of the Uncommitted Voter.

Don’t get me wrong: this is not necessarily a bad place to be, particularly a year before the caucus. In some ways, it’s refreshing, in that many nominating cycles present either a choice between candidates all of whom you despise to varying degrees (“the lesser of two evils”), or about whom you are indifferent (“the evil of two lessers”). It’s not all that common to go into a campaign with more than one candidate who is relatively attractive (i.e., positives outweigh negatives), but I think that’s what we’ve got, at least up to this point.

It’s worth noting that this is the first presidential election cycle since 1952 in which there is no clear successor vying to follow the retiring incumbent into the Oval Office. With the field as wide open as it can be for both major parties, huge advantages are likely for whichever one presents the most robust group of candidates, first to its own ranks, and then to the electorate at large. I like the fact that on the Democratic side there are a number of candidates who would seem to merit some serious thought: Hillary Clinton (who, interestingly, is the national frontrunner but does not lead polling in Iowa) is as formidable as expected, but there’s also the phenomenon of Barack Obama, the personality of John Edwards, the résumé of Bill Richardson, the gravitas of Joe Biden. And who’s to say there aren’t surprises lurking in Tom Vilsack, Chris Dodd and some others?

Jumping back to Neal Miller, all this tosses a pretty attractive set of approach-approach conflicts into the decision mix. The not-so-good stuff, what Miller termed the “avoidance gradients,” hasn’t emerged yet; but I’m sure all the campaigns are hard at work on moving that process along. For the time being, though, this is the Happy Hour of the campaign, time for introductions and bar snacks, and trading the occasional phone number. There’s a long way to go before Last Call.