Biden Redux

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 685

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Joe Biden will be in Des Moines for a breakfast event at a café not far from our house this coming Saturday, and I’ll be there.

Doesn’t ring a bell? Okay, throw this in to the mix: Senators on both sides of the aisle have hammered out new language for a non-binding resolution opposing the Bush administration’s plans to escalate the role of US combat forces in Iraq, and Majority Leader Harry Reid is working on when to schedule the vote for a third run up the hill.

Any guesses? Like, maybe, the vote will be called for Saturday, leading the conscientious senator from Delaware to put his day job ahead of presidential campaigning and cancel his trip to Iowa?

Yeah, probably.

But, if a miracle occurs and the event does come off, I’ll be interested to hear Biden talk more about Iraq. His policy proposals on ending the war are detailed, well known, and unusually thoughtful and comprehensive. Most intriguing, Biden goes beyond the “when” and “how” of ending US military involvement in Iraq, and asks “what” happens after that (as an aside, I’m thinking there has got to be a better answer than John Edwards’ “I don’t know”).

Full account to follow, assuming the event happens as scheduled. In the meantime, here are some links with background info on Biden’s war proposals:

Boston Globe Op-Ed Piece, February 27, 2007
Plan for Iraq
No More Troops

The "F" Word

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 688

“I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word ‘faggot,’ so I — [applause and cheering] so kind of an impasse, can’t really talk about Edwards.” ~ Ann Coulter, speaking to the American Conservative Union, March 3, 2007.

Read it again. Then once more. Read it as many times as it takes to bring your jaw up from the floor. These are words spoken today at a Republican presidential forum in Washington by the well-known conservative commentator and author, Ann Coulter. The statement was broadcast live on C-Span, and Coulter has made no attempt to deny the accuracy of the quote; the best she could do was attempt to flippantly pass off her remarks as a joke.

I don’t know which is worse: that anyone speaking before a crowd of Republican elected officials and their politically-connected friends – a crowd which included the Vice President of the United States – would make such remarks, or that any of those in attendance would respond with cheers and applause, or that Coulter would later go on to say that she thought she was being funny.

To their credit, three Republican presidential candidates who spoke at the gathering – John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani and Mitt Romney – have issued statements disavowing Coulter’s remarks. But the question that must be asked is, why isn’t every Republican candidate – heck, every Republican, period – denouncing Coulter’s hateful words?

I am sad to say that the Edwards campaign’s response has been weak, and to a shocking degree, cynical: it has sent out an email titled “Shame on You, Ann Coulter,” that urged supporters to show their outrage by…donating $100,000 in “Coulter Cash” in the coming week. “Shame on you”? Give us money? This is the best they can come up with in response to what is, in many ways, an unprecedented injection of hate-speak into American politics?

On many occasions in the past, my friends have asked me why I’m so interested in politics, why I am involved in the Democratic party, why I don’t just recognize that politics is all just a lousy, worthless game and come up with some other hobby. My answer is simple, and this incident illustrates it perfectly: that while I breathe, I will not acquiesce in the surrender of American life to this outrageous level of hatred, bigotry, and disregard of common decency. I will not just watch this happen – I will fight against it, and I will do everything in my power to prevent its acceptance as normal conduct in American politics, or American life. Not in my country. Not without a fight. Not while I draw breath.

Ann Coulter isn’t the disease. She is merely a symptom of what happens when too many of us leave the field of political discourse to those who would abuse it. It is time to act. It is time to reclaim the country that belongs to all of us. The next election is still many months away, but the battle is already joined, and the worse place to be is on the sidelines. It’s time to go to work.

PS/ I didn’t make it to Bill Richardson’s breakfast event this morning, sad to say. My car was sunk in about an inch of ice after this weekend’s blizzard, and by the time I dug my way clear, the event was over. Sorry Bill – but I will catch you next time.

On Deck: Bill Richardson

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 691

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has scheduled a breakfast this coming Saturday at a café not far from our house, so I’ll be heading over to see him there. I thought Richardson’s recent speech to the DNC Winter Meeting was worthwhile, if far from electrifying, and I’ll be interested in hearing what he has to say on Iraq (the surge, how/when we get out, and what happens then), Iran and North Korea, and, while he’s here, maybe healthcare and campaign finance reform.

I think Bill Richardson has the chops to contribute substance to the issue debates in this campaign, so I’m looking forward to meeting him. Look for the usual write up after the event.

There are also rumors abroad that Hillary Clinton will be in town next Monday, but details are pretty sketchy so far. More on that as it develops.

Odds and Ends

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 693

Lots of different thoughts flying around the Iowa corner of the blogosphere since the state’s former Governor announced last Friday that he was dropping his bid for the White House. The blog entries run the gamut from entirely practical, “So You Worked For Tom Vilsack, What Do You Do Now?” at Iowa Progress, to the just-short-of-silly “Senator Vilsack?” at Century of the Common Iowan. But, almost inevitably, discussion since the weekend has gravitated to the horserace after Vilsack: who’s candidacy does Vilsack’s withdrawal benefit?; who’s does it hurt?

I won’t claim any particular insight here, except to observe that in the latest poll I’ve seen on the Democratic race in Iowa, Tom Vilsack pulled 14%, putting him in 4th place behind Edwards, Clinton and Obama. That strikes me as 14% of likely caucus-goers who are suddenly entirely up for grabs. Some have speculated that the bulk of that number will swing to one candidate or another; as in almost everything else, Hillary Clinton’s name gets mentioned a lot in this respect. But I’m inclined to the view that Vilsack’s support will fragment, and will likely benefit the second tier of candidates most, if for no other reason than the campaigns of Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson have nowhere to go but up.

But most heartening to me is this observation from Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray of the Washington Post that the biggest beneficiary of Vilsack’s departure is…Iowa, actually. They argue that with an Iowan Native Son out of the running, none of the other candidates have any thing left to scare them out of trying to compete in Iowa. I hope that turns out to be true, because it means more candidates here more often, meeting more voters, and hearing more of what’s on the minds of the people who’s support they’re asking for. And that can’t be a bad thing.

Lastly, and unrelated to any of this, Barack Obama’s campaign is conducting an organizing event in Grinnell next Monday, March 5th. Anyone who’s interested can learn more here.

"V" For...Vacation

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 696

Unable to force an immediate withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, Tom Vilsack has apparently decided to settle for an immediate withdrawal as a candidate for President.

His loss is MidAmerican Holdings' gain. My only disappointment at his announcement is that he was not heard to utter, “I am expressly not a candidate.”

Vilsack’s stated reason for dropping out was lack of money to continue the campaign. I do wish someone would have asked him exactly how much money would be required to allow him to stay in the race, just to hear him say, “I can’t recall.”

But don’t be a stranger, Tom. Let’s do lunch the next time you’re in the Ruan Center.

The Money Wars

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 696

With the Iowa campaign calendar once more relatively quiet for the next few days, here are a couple of thoughts going in to this weekend.

Barack Obama’s swing through Hollywood this week is reported to have netted him about $1.3 million, which is not a bad haul for 18 hours’ work. Also this week, and this can’t be a coincidence, the Hillary Clinton campaign launched an email drive to raise $1 million through small private donations in one week. I see a couple of significant points in this: one, the email launching the fundraising drive was from Bill Clinton, and this is the first time that I’ve seen where Hillary’s campaign has directly involved him as a messenger and fundraiser; two, the campaign sent out a follow-up email the next day from James Carville not only trumpeting the success of the fundraising drive’s first 24 hours, but also citing a specific dollar amount – over $285, 000 in the first day – that came in as a result of a single email from Bill Clinton.

Here’s where this is going. I think the message from the Clinton campaign to the Obama campaign is: You’re moving in on Hollywood money? We’re moving in on grass roots money, and we’ll get what you get, dollar for dollar, and then some. You’ve got David Geffen? We’ve got Bill Clinton. You forego public financing because you think you can keep up with us? We will out-fundraise you back to the Stone Age. And Obama campaign be warned: there is no free pass to the High Road. The minute you start getting some traction, we’ll tie your newfound Hollywood patrons around your neck like an albatross, and we’ll be the wholesome beneficiaries of public support while you spend days off-message wrestling with questions about taking money tainted by the proverbial Hollywood “sleaze.”

This is how the game is played, in both parties and in any campaign with stakes higher than City Dog Catcher. Normally this all goes on out of public view, because that is what usually serves the candidates best. But in this case, both sides are sending a message, like the fish wrapped in Luca Brasi’s coat. This episode doesn’t necessarily set the tone of the entire campaign, and I expect that the current hubbub will die down. But there will be flare-ups from time to time, and the press will point back to this when they happen.

The important thing is that both campaigns – and, more directly, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama themselves – manage their street fights to ensure that Democratic prospects in the general election are not damaged. That’s the real battle, and they need to keep their eye on the ball.

Finally, as far as David Geffen’s comments to Maureen Dowd are concerned, here’s all you need to know: the Oscars are this Sunday, and Geffen wants to make sure he works his way into Ellen DeGeneres’s opening monologue. That’s all, folks!

Obama's Des Moines Town Hall Event

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 697

As promised, I dropped by Senator Barack Obama’s town hall event at the Polk County Convention Center in Des Moines last night. Since I work in downtown Des Moines, and my office is a short way from the convention center and both are connected via the Skywalk, it will probably be the easiest commute I’ll have to any campaign event this election cycle.

The event was scheduled to begin at 7:45 PM, with doors scheduled to open at 6:45. I got there after work around 6:00, and while several dozen people were there already, I was the first person to actually get in line to go in. Note to future event attendees: it doesn’t make much sense to get there early unless you get in line!

The doors actually opened at around 6:20. The venue was enormous, like an airplane hanger, filled with seats. The seating was segregated by ticket color; once again, there were blue and red tickets not available to the general public. I asked several campaign volunteers where and how one could obtain something other than the general admission white tickets, and none of them knew, either. This, along with the consulting salary paid to Tom Vilsack by MidAmerican Holdings, may be one of the biggest mysteries of the entire campaign so far.

After a little shifting around, I ended up about six rows back from the stage, which proved to put me about 40 feet away from Obama for most of the event. Not bad, considering that, alas, lots of others probably needed binoculars to see him clearly.

I must say the event got off to a slightly weird start. The usual introductions were made, first by the Polk County Democratic Party chairman, then local Congressman Leonard Boswell (who also did emcee duty at Hillary’s town hall in Des Moines last month – he’s certainly keeping his options open), then a local activist and schoolteacher. The schoolteacher speaks the usual “please welcome Barack Obama” cue…the crowd rises to its feet as one…all eyes swing toward the entrance…wild cheering…booming music…and…then….nothing. No one. Barack does not appear. Thirty seconds pass. A minute. The cheering falters. Two minutes. Applause gives way to impatient rhythmic clapping. An announcement from the stage that Obama will be there in a couple minutes more.

Obama finally arrives, of course, to undiminished enthusiasm. Audible sighs of relief from the campaign staff. He explains that he had been speaking to his daughters on the phone. Gooshy “oooh”s and “awwww”s from the crowd, and Barack quickly goes on to hit his stride. Referring to the scale of the night’s event, Obama promised many additional returns to Iowa, with the opportunity for retail politicking Iowans have come to expect. He then made opening remarks concerning health care, education, energy and the war, and opened the floor for questions.

Although much was made by both Obama and his introducers of the tough questions Iowans ask at these events, the overwhelming majority of questions were softballs, served up to be easily hit out of the park. At one point, an audience member addressed his question to “President Obama,” to which the candidate replied, “President Obama – I’ll claim that!” (just as an aside, imagine the cries of unpardonable arrogance and hubris that would have roared up at such a statement if it had been made by, say, Hillary Clinton). And, as in the Hillary kickoff last month, the audience was surprisingly reticent on Iraq. Barack spoke about the war at a number of points throughout the night, but little or nothing on the topic originated with the audience. I’m still wrestling to try to understand why this is.

This event presented an interesting contrast between Barack Obama delivering a prepared speech versus extemporizing in a Q&A setting. Overall, he seemed at ease, if ever-so-slightly rhetorically diminished, in dealing with the questions from the audience. His answers and delivery were smooth, and the experience of seeing the candidate occasionally pause for thought before answering a question was refreshing and humanizing in a way that Obama’s campaign must find very satisfying.

How well did Barack Obama do last night? The answer depends on your assessment of the challenges faced by his campaign. If you believe that the key to success for Obama rests in continuing to show up in front of throngs of curious voters and adulatory supporters, to keep building name recognition and reinforce his image as a dynamic and eloquent campaigner, then he did very well. If you believe that Obama needs to supplement his established image by demonstrating greater passion for solutions and for the prospect of becoming President in order to implement those solutions, he did less well. And if you believe that evidence of potential Presidential leadership ability based on past or current performance is what’s needed to ultimately elevate Barack Obama from political celebrity into the realm of electoral inevitability, then the candidate still has a long road ahead of him.

In other words, the higher your expectations for this event, the less satisfying the result is likely to have been. This is no condemnation of Barack Obama or his campaign. If anything, it is confirmation that a first-time candidate for president with less than three years tenure in national office might benefit from taking his initial steps in smaller gatherings, with less media and public attention, to hone his pitch, and frankly, allow himself the freedom to make mistakes in settings that won’t be instantly televised and webcast around the world.

There’s no denying that a campaign trying to build momentum in counterweight to the aura of inevitability that the Clinton campaign is working hard to create might find taking a small step out of the limelight for a period of time to be painful. But all candidates make mistakes, all campaigns need to establish their rhythm, and Barack Obama is no exception. The smart thing would be to recognize this, understand that we’re still nearly a year out from the caucus, and leverage this small window of opportunity to tune up the campaign and the candidate in preparation for the rigors to come.

Mic Time v. Face Time

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 701

Barack Obama is making an early return to Iowa for a town hall event in Des Moines this coming Wednesday, February 21.

The event is being held at the convention center downtown, another huge venue that doesn’t augur well for candidate-voter face time. This is starting to make me feel a little cranky. I have questions to ask of those who want my support for their presidential ambitions, and I’d like to be able to ask them without need of a PA system. When will the top-tier candidates downshift from rock star mode and take the time to more fully engage with people in this state?

Ranting aside, this is a double-edged dynamic at work in the campaign. On the one hand, the field is very hot very early, and that results in a bit of disruption to the normal campaign rhythm in early-entry states like Iowa and New Hampshire. On the other hand, all the accelerated competition for attention does require the campaigns to come out in detail on issues sooner rather than later, which injects substance and gravity into the process far earlier than would otherwise be the case. If it is not exactly win-win, neither is it lose-lose; it is something in between. Welcome to politics.

So I’ll be there Wednesday to hear what Obama has to say, and in hopes of snagging some mic time (if not face time) with the candidate. Full account to follow, as always.

Granite State Karma

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 704

Attentive readers of this blog - both of you - will recall that a couple of weeks ago I made some rather snarky comments of faux pity toward the good citizens of New Hampshire over holes in their weekend presidential campaign schedule due to cancellations of previously planned visits by Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

You guessed it.

Joe Biden’s breakfast talk in Des Moines on Saturday has been - yes - cancelled. The Iraq resolution continues to glacially crawl its way toward the floor of the Senate, and appears headed for a vote on Saturday, preempting Senator Biden’s planned Iowa weekend.

I’m told the event will be rescheduled.

So too, no doubt, will the vote on Iraq.

I blame myself.

Biden Time

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 705

Looks like Joe Biden plans on spending this coming weekend in Iowa. The senator’s public schedule includes stops in Ames and Marshalltown on Friday, Cedar Rapids, Davenport and Des Moines on Saturday, and Allison, Cedar Falls, Hampton and Waverly on Sunday. This is an unusual concentration of time in the state for any candidate so far this year, and signals that Biden is starting to dig in for the long fight and longer odds he must know awaits him here.

Biden’s visit comes in the immediate wake of Barack Obama’s tour of the state last weekend, including the enormous rally at Iowa State, and just a couple of weeks after Hillary Clinton’s much-covered campaign kickoff in Des Moines. In contrast to the Clinton and Obama mega events, Biden’s appearances are decidedly small, more in keeping with the traditional retail-style politics of the Iowa caucuses. The Friday appearances are a town hall at the state veteran’s home, followed by a soup supper hosted by the local county Democratic party organization at a church in Ames. Saturday features breakfast and remarks to the Women for a Stronger America group at a café in Des Moines, lunch with the AFL-CIO in Cedar Rapids (closed to the press – I wonder why?), and a dinner hosted by the local county Democratic party organization in Davenport. Finally, Sunday has Biden at a house party in Cedar Falls, followed by a speech at Wartburg College in Waverly, and wrapping up with an address to the local county Democratic party organization in Hampton.

The senator’s schedule is notable in its focus on party and union groups, signaling that Biden has decided against media-driven events aimed at introducing himself to voters here in favor of churning out yardage in the ground game of organizing and mobilizing that is the essence of campaigning for president in Iowa. This tells me a couple of things: Biden recognizes that he can’t compete with Clinton and Obama for media attention, and also that he thinks their campaigns may have miscalculated in foregoing retail politics for the bright lights, and hopes to capitalize by filling that vacuum. With the latter, I suspect he also hopes to put a few dents into the Edwards campaign, which has been pretty quiet here the last month or so.

I don’t know if any of the foregoing is true, or would be effective if it were true, but Biden’s schedule is good news for me either way, as it means I will at last come face-to-face with a candidate. I’ll be at the café on Saturday to hear Biden speak to the Women for a Stronger America breakfast. I’m mulling a couple of different questions for the candidate, about the war, presidential signing statements, and judicial nominations, and am pretty hopeful that I’ll be able to ask him at least one. Getting an answer can be an entirely different matter, of course, but I’ll do my best!