Clinton, Obama Likely to Debate Twice Before PA Primary

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 311

According to the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to face off in at least two debates between now and Pennsylvania's primary voting on April 22.

One debate, to be hosted by ABC news, would take place in Pennsylvania, with the date still to be finalized. The other, to be sponsored by CBS news, is scheduled to take place April 19 in North Carolina, which holds its own primary with 115 delegates at stake on May 6.

The Obama campaign has agreed to the North Carolina debate, but as yet there has been no firm commitment to appear from the Clinton campaign.

Keith Olbermann: Mindreader

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 312

Last night on MSNBC's "Countdown," host Keith Olbermann gave voice to what I've been thinking and feeling all week, but have been too sickened to write.



Ten minutes of unvarnished truth. Hear, hear.

A Nine Followed by Seven Zeros

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 319

The Obama campaign released information today indicating that it raised $55 million dollars during the month of February, all but $1 million of it earmarked to be spent in the primaries.

Combined with the $35 million the the Clinton campaigned raised, that makes February's Democratic fund raising haul a staggering $90 million dollars.

That's an average of more than $3 million per day, every day, for the entire month of February. Words fail me.

Thoughts on Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas & Vermont

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 320

Hillary Clinton emerged victorious in some major contests last night, and that is big news if for no other reason than it is the first time anyone has been able to put the words "Clinton" and "victorious" in the same sentence in quite a while.

About the only conclusion that can be immediately drawn from last night's results is that the Democratic race has a ways to go before being settled (anyone in the room who didn't see that coming, go stand in the corner). The Clinton campaign can now draw its first breath since February 5 and turn its attention to what comes next. One gets the impression that when the Clinton campaign thinks "next," they mean Pennsylvania on April 22, but that ignores Wyoming's caucuses this coming Saturday and Mississippi's primary next Tuesday. Those two contests, while combining to offer just 45 delegates, are important in that they provide the winner with the chance to, in the Clinton version, build some momentum from last night's results and roll up some more "hey! wha' happun?" stories from the thunderstruck mainstream media, or, in the Obama version, diminish the atmospherics that now prevail after last night's voting and reinforce the daunting challenge Clinton faces in closing Obama's delegate lead, which remains little changed despite last night's outcome. The Clinton campaign has heretofore shown a tendency to look past small contests; we'll see whether that trend continues.

For the Republicans, or at least those Republicans who back John McCain, all is joy this morning: McCain numerically clinched the delegates required for nomination last night, and is scheduled to receive President Bush's endorsement in the White House Rose Garden this morning (for which gesture I, as a Democrat, am eternally grateful. John McCain standing side-by-side with George W. Bush, receiving the president's blessing to carry on with policies that have skyrocketed him to public approval ratings persistently below 30 percent? Now there's a Kodak moment!). Unfortunately for McCain, important segments of the GOP base still view him as little better than either of the remaining Democratic candidates, so the Straight Talk Express is facing a bumpy ride, not to mention an uphill one, going into November.

And for Barack Obama, the next few weeks present both challenge and opportunity. If Obama can recoup from last night with large-margin wins in Wyoming and Mississippi and roll out meaningful numbers of super delegate commitments, he can present the case that the delegate lead he enjoys leaves Clinton with no realistic path to the nomination, and renew his drive with the Democratic establishment to press for Clinton's withdrawal in the interests of party unity. In the event that Clinton remains in the race through Pennsylvania and beyond, the campaign is sure to continue its negative trend, and the challenge for Obama then becomes showing that he can take a punch and hit back effectively. Doing that without disillusioning those who look to him as the progenitor of a better political culture will be no easy feat, but if he can pull it off, it would enhance his image by adding an element of toughness to his change agent persona. That would serve him well going into a general election campaign against John McCain.

Virtual Spin Room: Texas & Ohio

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 320

After the big votes in Texas & Ohio, here's what the candidates want you to think:

Hillary Clinton

It's a pretty incredible feeling, isn't it? After our victories tonight we have the momentum, thanks to your will, determination, and hard work.

Some people were ready to count us out. But you and I proved them wrong, just as we have every time they tried to declare this race over prematurely. And we're going to keep showing them exactly what we can do.

We're going to do it for everyone across America who's been counted out -- but refused to be knocked out. For everyone who's stumbled -- but stood right back up. And for everyone who works hard -- but never gives up.

I hope you enjoy our victories tonight as much as I am. We won this one together, and that makes it that much better. Thank you so very much for all you have done for our campaign.

Let's build on this remarkable momentum. Each and every one of you can make a statement tonight by going to www.hillaryclinton.com

Thank you so much for everything you did to make this night possible.

All the best,
Hillary

Barack Obama

We may not know the final outcome of today's voting until morning, but the results so far make one thing clear.

When the dust settles from today's contests, we will maintain our substantial lead in delegates. And thanks to millions of people standing for change, we will keep adding delegates and capture the Democratic nomination.

We knew from the day we began this journey that the road would be long. And we knew what we were up against.

We knew that the closer we got to the change we seek, the more we'd see of the politics we're trying to end -- the attacks and distortions that try to distract us from the issues that matter to people's lives, the stunts and the tactics that ask us to fear instead of hope.

But this time -- this year -- it will not work. The challenges are too great. The stakes are too high.

Americans need real change.

In the coming weeks, we will begin a great debate about the future of this country with a man who has served it bravely and loves it dearly. And we will offer two very different visions of the America we see in the twenty-first century.

John McCain has already dismissed our call for change as eloquent but empty.

But he should know that it's a call that did not begin with my words. It's the resounding call from every corner of this country, from first-time voters and lifelong cynics, from Democrats and Republicans alike.

And together you and I are going to grow this movement to deliver that change in November.

Thank you,

Barack

D-Day?

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 321

Appearing on CBS' "Face the Nation" this past Sunday, New Mexico Governor and former 2008 Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson said this when asked about the inportance of today's voting in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont:

"D-Day is Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday should be the nominee"

I don't know if I would agree that it's quite so cut-and-dried as that, and I certainly think that Richardson overstates matters when he characterizes Republicans as united behind John McCain. But, yes, today could be a significant point in the 2008 campaign, to the extent that it either reinforces or reverses current perceptions on the direction of the Democratic presidential race.

The Washington Post serves up a nice tray of questions that today's voting might help clarify. Here's an excerpt:

"The latest Associated Press delegate counts available on washingtonpost.com show Obama with 1,352 and Clinton with 1,239, a margin of 113. CNN says Obama is leading by 143. The Obama and Clinton campaigns are in relative agreement. Obama's team claims a 162-delegate lead, while Clinton's says he is ahead by 160.5.

There are 370 pledged delegates at stake today. After Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont have been counted, only 611 pledged delegates will be left in the remaining contests. No matter how you run the numbers, the conclusion is always the same: There is virtually no realistic way for Clinton to emerge from the primary-caucus season with more pledged delegates than Obama.

The Clinton counter to this is that pledged delegates alone will not get Obama to the majority that either candidate needs to win the nomination, leaving the outcome in the hands of the superdelegates -- those elected officials and party leaders who have turned off their phones rather than having to say no to one of the candidates."

I think today's voting comes down to a question of when and how either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama achieves critical mass in their quest for the nomination. Obama, of course, has eleven consecutive victories under his belt going into today, and it has been that performance over time that has reshaped the Democratic race. The result of a single day's voting is unlikely to clinch things, in the sense that either campaign will be able to say it's all over tonight.

I've jotted down some thoughts on this over at Pajamas Media. I'll be back tomorrow with my take on the results and what they might mean.

New Obama Ad in Texas: "Ringing"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 324

Barack Obama has a new ad up in Texas. The 30-second spot, titled "Ringing," is a direct rebuttal to the Clinton campaign's "Children" ad released yesterday.

Here's the video:



On the substance of the ad, the same comments apply here that I made yesterday regarding Clinton's ad - no new tale to tell.

But in terms of campaign agility and response time, this ad is pretty impressive: same imagery, same narrative style, and pushing the Clinton ad's point directly back upon itself, and all done in less than a day. If the last 24 hours is any indication, Barack Obama is going to be pretty tough to swiftboat, from either side of the aisle.

New Clinton Ad in Texas: "Children"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 325

Hillary Clinton has a new ad up in Texas. The 30-second spot, titled "Children," uses a telephone ringing in the White House at 3:00 AM to dramatize the importance of the president as commander in chief and make the case that Hillary Clinton should be the person answering the call when crises arise.

Here's the script for the ad:

ANNOUNCER: "It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military -- someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?"

CLINTON: "I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message."

And here's the video:




This is the type of ad that we're more used to seeing during a general election campaign than during primary season. I understand the point that the Clinton campaign is making with this ad, and it clearly aligns with her experience message, but I think this ad skirts very close to crossing the line and playing the fear card with voters. The subtext is "if Hillary loses, the terrorists win."

The problem I have with this is that, to my knowledge, Hillary Clinton has never been at the center of an emerging crisis and has never faced the test posited in this ad. Nor has Barack Obama. Nor, I hasten to ad, has John McCain. There are some aspects of the presidency that no one but presidents have been called upon to face. Voters can certainly infer competence from a whatever experiences a given candidate has undergone, and make judgments on that basis about whom they would prefer to trust in a crisis. But to say, as this ad does, that Hillary Clinton, or anyone who has not been President of the United States, somehow knows what it's like to get that phone call at three in the morning is a bit silly. Despite what this ad suggests, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

But the little trumpet fanfare at the end, trilling as Hillary rides in to pick up the phone and save the day, is cute. Nice touch, Mandy Grunwald!

Chris Dodd Endorses Obama: "He is Ready to be President"

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 328

As an anticipated, U.S. Senator and former Democratic presidential candidate Chris Dodd today endorsed Barack Obama's bid to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Dodd issued the following announcement this morning:

We have been through a lot in this past year and your friendship and support have meant so much to me. That is why I wanted to let you know of my decision to endorse a Democratic candidate for President - and that I have decided to support Barack Obama.

We all understand how much is at stake in this election and that it is more important than ever that we put a Democrat in the White House.

And while both of our Party's remaining candidates are extremely talented and would make excellent commanders-in-chief, I am throwing my support to the candidate who I believe will open the most eyes to our shared Democratic vision.

I'm deeply proud to be the first 2008 Democratic presidential candidate to endorse Barack Obama. He is ready to be President. And I am ready to support him - to work with him and for him and help elect him our 44th President.

Put simply, I believe Barack Obama is uniquely qualified to help us face this housing crisis, create good jobs, strengthen America's families in this 21st century global economy, unite the world against terrorism and end the war in Iraq - and perhaps most importantly, call the American people to shared service and sacrifice. In this campaign, he has drawn millions of voters into politics for the first time in their lives and shown us that we are united by so much more than that which divides us.

That is why I believe the time has come for Democrats to come together as a Party and focus on winning the general election. The stakes are too high not to.

The last seven years have been as difficult as any I can remember. More than ever, we need a President who will inspire us to take part in the political process and change our country's path.

Today, when we need it most, we are hearing a new call from Barack Obama. And I hope you, like me, will answer it in the affirmative.

Please get involved in Barack Obama's campaign now: http://action.barackobama.com/doddsupporters


Sincerely,

Chris Dodd

Except as momentary news blips, I've never believed endorsements like this actually carry much weight. A case in point is Obama losing the Massachusetts primary to Hillary Clinton, even after he had been endorsed by the Bay State's political lion, Ted Kennedy.

What this does provide Barack Obama is marginally enhanced status among the party base, who admire Chris Dodd for his longstanding crusade to restore constitutional protections of civil liberties eroded by the Bush administration. During his own presidential campaign, Dodd won the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters, and he may be of influence in swinging that endorsement over to Obama. But the impact on the voters in Texas and Ohio, the big states going to the polls on March 4, will likely be small. What is true of all endorsements is that a candidate would rather have them than not, and Dodd's endorsement of Obama is no exception.

It's All Your Fault

Days Until Bush Leaves Office = 329

Last Wednesday at New York City's Hunter College, Senator Hillary Clinton addressed supporters at a fundraiser. Her remarks included this gem:

"It is time to get real – to get real about how we actually win this election and get real about the challenges facing America. It’s time that we moved from good words to good work, from sound bites to sound solutions."

Which to my ear sounds oddly like, well, a sound bite.

I've written up some thoughts about this, which can be found over at Pajamas Media. Suffice it to say here that the most enduring line-not-to-be-crossed remaining in American politics is placing blame on the voters when your campaign isn't going as well as you'd like. Don't go there, Hillary.